Without Better Data, Middle East Policymakers Risk Getting Lost
IMF Blog, May 23, 2012
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Nemat Shafik
- Published: May 23, 2012
Main findings: data shortcomings in MENA
- The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region "suffers significant shortcoming in data," including important data gaps and poor data quality.
- Internationally agreed standards of statistical methodologies, compilation periodicity and timeliness, and data dissemination practices are often not followed.
- IMF assessments found the main data shortcomings occur in:
- national accounts,
- government finance, and
- external sector data.
- In compiling consumer price statistics, only "17 percent of countries in MENA follow the internationally accepted methodology."
- GDDS participants from the MENA region are "less successful in meeting the periodicity and timeliness guidelines compared to members from other regions."
Consequences of weak data
- Making policy decisions without adequate and timely data risks "getting lost, wasting time and money, and making policy mistakes with obvious negative consequences for growth and development."
- Data gaps hamper proper assessment of economic trends, effective policy formulation, and pre-emptive prediction of risks.
- Accurate and reliable macroeconomic statistics enable more effective policymaking and provide investors with data to make informed decisions.
Examples of progress within the region
- Improved reporting on portfolio investment: Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, and Lebanon.
- Improved reporting on financial soundness: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, and West Bank and Gaza.
What is needed: policy recommendations and institutional measures
- Increase transparency and wider public data dissemination.
- Adopt statistical laws that stress the independence of statistical agencies from political interference.
- Establish and strengthen a regional statistical body—ArabStat—with roles to:
- coordinate activities among national statistical agencies,
- bring MENA’s statistical systems in line with international standards,
- promote production and dissemination of data at country and regional levels,
- spearhead efforts to improve data quality to meet international standards,
- foster collaboration and enhance coordination to harmonize statistical methodologies and data dissemination practices.
The role of the IMF and international standards
- The IMF promotes transparency and compiles and disseminates data through initiatives:
- Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), launched in 1996, to guide countries with or seeking access to international capital markets in providing economic and financial data to the public.
- General Data Dissemination System (GDDS), launched in 1997, to guide member countries in developing plans for statistical improvement.
- Subscribing to the SDDS is "somewhat a proxy of statistical development and political commitment to disseminate data according to stringent and well-defined periodicity and timeliness."
- "Only 5 MENA countries are currently subscribed to SDDS."
- The MENA region, with support from the IMF, "needs to invest more in improving statistics."
- Quoted conference sentiment: "Good statistics are cheaper than bad policy."
Source: Without Better Data, Middle East Policymakers Risk Getting Lost (Nemat Shafik, May 23, 2012).
