Taking Stock: Public Finances Now Stronger in Many Countries

IMF Blog, October 9, 2012

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The slow global recovery is making fiscal adjustment more difficult, but significant progress has been made during the past two years in strengthening fiscal accounts after the 2008–09 deterioration.
The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor takes stock of this progress.

Deficits, adjusted for the economic cycle:
- Fell by about ¾ of a percentage point of GDP in 2011 and 2012.
- Projected to fall by about 1 percentage point of GDP in 2013.
Despite lower deficits, public debt is still increasing in many countries because borrowing remains substantial and GDP growth is low.
Debt ratios are rising, but at a slower pace than previously.

Group 1 (blue line): countries with declining or stable public–debt-to-GDP ratios.
- Pattern since 2007: deficits and debt initially increase; deficits then decline while debt ratio keeps rising; finally the debt ratio begins to fall as deficits stay lower.
Group 2 (green line): countries where the debt ratio hasn’t started to fall yet but is about to do so.
- Deficits are falling; the increase in the debt ratio is petering out; the debt level remains relatively low.
Group 3 (red line): countries with larger fiscal imbalances.
- In most of these countries deficits have started declining, but debt is high, or still rising, or both.

Many countries, particularly in Group 3, will need to continue fiscal adjustment for several years.
The necessary speed of adjustment depends on:
- The size of fiscal imbalances.
- The degree of market pressures.
- The state of health of the overall economy.
In general, a relatively gradual pace of fiscal adjustment is preferable given persistent economic weakness.
- For the United States, maintaining a gradual pace requires avoiding the “fiscal cliff” of automatic deficit reduction and timely action to raise the debt ceiling.

On average, emerging economies’ fiscal deficits and debt are well below those of advanced economies.
Most emerging economies will pause fiscal adjustment in 2012 and 2013:
- The average fiscal adjustment in these countries, which had been sizable in 2010 and 2011, will be almost zero in 2012 and 2013.
Several emerging economies still run very large primary deficits despite years of historically strong growth, indicating revenues are insufficient to cover non-interest expenditure.
When downside risks to global growth recede, these countries will need to resume efforts to reduce fiscal weaknesses.

Source: Taking Stock: Public Finances Now Stronger in Many Countries — Carlo Cottarelli, October 9, 2012.

近期回顾：许多国家公共财政有所加强
- 近期回顾：许多国家公共财政有所加强 (Markdown version)
- 近期回顾：许多国家公共财政有所加强 (PDF)
現況の評価：多くの国で財政が強化されつつある; IMFdirect ブログ; カルロ・コッタレリ, 2012年10月9日
- 現況の評価：多くの国で財政が強化されつつある; IMFdirect ブログ; カルロ・コッタレリ, 2012年10月9日 (Markdown version)
- 現況の評価：多くの国で財政が強化されつつある; IMFdirect ブログ; カルロ・コッタレリ, 2012年10月9日 (PDF)
Оценка текущего состояния: государственные финансы стали сильнее во многих странах
- Оценка текущего состояния: государственные финансы стали сильнее во многих странах (Markdown version)
- Оценка текущего состояния: государственные финансы стали сильнее во многих странах (PDF)