Chart of the Week: Global House Prices—Where Is the Boom?
IMF Blog, March 27, 2017
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: The Editors
- Published: March 27, 2017
Overview and headline finding
- The IMF’s Global House Price Index—an average of real house prices across countries—has been rising for the past four years.
- The uptick in global house prices is uneven and depends on location; house price developments across countries fall into three clusters: gloom, bust and boom, and boom.
Cluster definitions and implications
- Gloom: countries in which house prices fell substantially at the onset of the Great Recession, and have remained on a downward path.
- Bust and Boom: countries in which housing markets have rebounded since 2013 after falling sharply during 2007–12.
- Boom: countries in which the drop in house prices in 2007–12 was quite modest, and was followed by a quick rebound.
Country/region and city clusters (as reported)
- Gloom = Brazil (Rio de Janeiro); China (Shanghai); Croatia (Zagreb); Cyprus (Nicosia); Finland (Helsinki); France (Paris); Greece (Athens); Macedonia (Skopje); Netherlands (Amsterdam); Russia (Moscow); Singapore (Singapore); Slovenia (Ljubljana); and Spain (Madrid).
- Bust and Boom = Denmark (Copenhagen); Estonia (Tallinn); Hungary (Budapest); Iceland (Reykjavik); Indonesia (Jakarta); Ireland (Dublin); Japan (Tokyo); Latvia (Riga); New Zealand (Auckland); Portugal (Lisbon); South Africa (Johannesburg); United Kingdom (London); and United States (San Francisco).
- Boom = Australia (Melbourne); Austria (Vienna); Belgium (Brussels); Canada (Toronto); Chile (Santiago); Colombia (Bogota); Hong Kong, SAR (Hong Kong); India (New Delhi); Israel (Tel Aviv); Korea (Seoul); Malaysia (Kuala Lumpur); Mexico (Mexico City); Norway (Oslo); Slovakia (Bratislava); Sweden (Stockholm); Switzerland (Zurich); and Taiwan, Province of China (Taipei City).
Within-country and city-level variation — key examples
- Australia: the strongest house price increases continue to be recorded in Sydney and Melbourne, where underlying demand for housing remains strong.
- Austria: the cumulative increase in the house price index over 2007–2015 was nearly 40 percent; this increase was driven to a large extent by price dynamics in Vienna.
- Turkey: the housing market exhibits significant variations across cities; regional variations have been further accentuated by the presence of almost 3 million Syrian refugees since March 2011. Cities near the Syrian border, which have absorbed larger masses of Syrian refugees, have seen significant rises in local housing prices since 2011, though they have moderated in recent years.
Analytical takeaway
- Aggregate increases in the Global House Price Index mask heterogeneous outcomes across and within countries; city-level dynamics are a key determinant of national house price patterns.
- Recent IMF assessments provide a more nuanced view of within-country house price developments and highlight the role of local demand pressures and regional shocks.
Source: Chart of the Week: Global House Prices—Where Is the Boom? — The Editors, March 27, 2017
Content in this bundle
- 本周图表：全球房价——哪里繁荣？IMFBlog; 2017年3月27日
- IMF Global Housing Watch Quarterly Report; November 2016
- IMF Global Housing Watch Quarterly Update, Q1 2017
- Диаграмма недели. Мировые цены на жилье — где же подъем?; Блог МВФ; 27 марта 2017 года
- El gráfico de la semana: ¿Dónde está el boom de los precios inmobiliarios?
