GDP: Falling Short

IMF Blog, December 22, 2017

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"Gross domestic product, or GDP, has been used to measure growth since the Second World War when economies were all about mass production and manufacturing."
Economist Diane Coyle argues GDP "is less well suited to measure progress in today’s digital economy."
Coyle: “I think the issue for GDP comes if the pace or scope of innovation is changing as much as it seems to be at the moment,” and therefore "that gap between what we’re measuring and the welfare effect seems quite large."

While economists argue GDP was never meant to measure welfare, "nearly everyone assumes it does just that."
Coyle: “GDP is shorthand for welfare,” and "if it’s becoming a less good indicator, that really matters."

Observed tension: "With all the technological advances in recent years one would expect that economies have become more productive. But GDP suggests the opposite is true."
Coyle refers to this as "the productivity puzzle" and links it to "the mismeasurement of digital activities within the economy."

Coyle emphasizes the role of official statistics in measuring productivity and growth.
She argues companies profiting from "mining big data have a responsibility to share their data with governments."
Rationale: "Because the purpose of official statistics is to enable governments to better run their countries."
Coyle: “It’s part of the social contract,” and: “If you are a successful company taking advantage of the legal system, the infrastructure and public facilities in a country, then it’s just part of the deal that you cooperate with the statistical agencies.”

"You can listen to the podcast HERE"
"You can also watch the webcast of Diane Coyle speaking at the IMF Statistical Forum on Measuring the Digital Economy."
Diane Coyle is author of GDP A Brief but Affectionate History

Source: IMF blog post "GDP: Falling Short", The Editors, December 22, 2017.