Chart of the Week: A Bumpy Road Ahead for Electric Cars

IMF Blog, August 13, 2018

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The surge in demand for electric cars has been fueled in part by the falling costs of lithium-ion batteries—driven by technological progress—which power everything from electric cars to smartphones.
Lithium and cobalt are critical components in batteries for electric cars.
The rapid growth in the demand for rechargeable batteries has driven up raw material prices and raised concerns about potential cobalt and lithium scarcities that could slow the rollout of electric vehicles.

The price of lithium carbonate increased by more than 30 percent in 2017.
Cobalt prices rose by 150 percent between September 2016 and July 2018.
Cobalt prices have come down somewhat in recent months, following strong production increases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and reduced demand from China.
Futures prices for 2018–19 suggest continued market attention to cobalt price dynamics.

Unlike lithium, the price of cobalt is expected to remain high due to limited supply and growing demand.
In 2016, more than 50 percent of the global supply of cobalt came from the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Cobalt prices have been volatile due to insecure supply chains.

Since 1915 there have been four price boom episodes for cobalt.
The booms during 1978–81 and 1995–96 elicited sharp production responses:
- World production grew by 54.1 percent in 1983.
- World production grew by 36.1 percent in 1995.
These production responses were significantly higher than the 50-year average of 4.8 percent.
The uptick in prices since 2016 and futures prices for 2018–19 suggest that history may be repeating itself and production could yet again accelerate, at least temporarily.

Several developments could limit price volatility, including increased recycling of cobalt and new primary production mining techniques.
Battery technology improvements could bring the surge in cobalt prices to a halt. One leading alternative to the lithium-ion battery concept—the solid-state battery—would mean smaller and more-energy-dense batteries that do not need cobalt.
Continued research and innovation in this area could spur further progress in the development of electric vehicles and portable electronics.

Source: Chart of the Week: A Bumpy Road Ahead for Electric Cars (August 13, 2018)

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