How Much Should You Save for Retirement?

IMF Blog, January 16, 2019

Source details

Research uses data from 80 countries to map public (government) and private savings over the next 30 years, given aging populations and the design of pension systems.
Findings emphasize the interaction between saving and pension systems in an aging world.
Public spending on pensions will increase by just over 2 percentage points of GDP by 2050, assuming unchanged policies.

Private saving trends drive the development of national saving.
In emerging markets and low-income developing countries collectively, relatively young populations lead to increased private saving.
In aging advanced economies, private saving rates are expected to contract sharply.
Public spending on pensions will increase in emerging markets and low-income countries where governments have yet to reform pension benefits.
Generous public pensions lower:
- public saving—through more pension spending, and
- private saving—by reducing the incentive to save.
Low public pensions can drive up private saving as households prepare for mainly self-funded retirement.
Presence of dedicated pension saving accounts (e.g., Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) in the United States, 401(K) style accounts) is associated with higher private saving; in countries with such accounts, private saving is projected to increase, in contrast to countries without them.

Russia and Australia are both aging and offer dedicated pension saving accounts; however:
- Pensions in Australia are less generous relative to national income, and
- Saving in Australia is projected to increase much faster than in Russia.

Two simulated policy actions that would allow people to retire at a living standard similar to today’s:
- A gradual increase in the retirement age from today’s average of 63 to 68 by 2050—at which time life expectancy is also projected to have increased by some 3 years.
- Saving an additional 6 percent of earnings each year.

In countries with generous public pensions:
- Curtail early retirement or adjust the size of pension benefits to address future funding shortfalls.
Governments can support retirement preparedness by:
- Stimulating development of financial sector instruments to encourage voluntary saving.
- Adopting policies to encourage people to lengthen their productive working lives.
In emerging markets and low-income countries:
- Stimulate work in the formal sector to broaden pension coverage and sustainability.
In countries where private saving is already very high and pension systems are weak (for example, China and Korea):
- Consider increasing pension system generosity to reduce precautionary saving, and to reduce inequality and old-age poverty.
Taken together, these policies can:
- Damp projected declines in national saving,
- Improve the sustainability of pension systems, and
- Ensure people have decent living standards in retirement.

Source: How Much Should You Save for Retirement? — David Amaglobeli, Era Dabla-Norris, Vitor Gaspar, January 16, 2019

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