China’s Digital Dividend

IMF Blog, February 6, 2019

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Digitalization has created millions of new jobs in China, accounting for between one-third and one-half of employment growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
The analysis focuses on employment in two sectors: information and communications technology (ICT) and retailing.
The overall impact of digitalization on employment has been positive as China’s economy shifts toward more labor-intensive services and away from manufacturing.

ICT added 14 million new jobs for high-skilled workers in the five years through 2016.
The average wage in ICT doubled.
E-commerce and the sharing economy are major drivers of job creation beyond ICT.
Alibaba Group’s e-commerce platform has almost 11 million small and medium enterprises, which have created 30 million jobs in a decade.
Didi Chuxing Technology Co.’s ride-hailing service is connected to 13 million drivers.
Industrial employment has fallen by 9 million since 2012, largely because of automation.
One company, Coxcomb, has replaced 60,000 workers with 40,000 robots.
Employment in retail sales has been largely stable despite expectations of vulnerability to automation.

Digitalization has shifted employment from manufacturing toward more labor-intensive services, producing net positive employment outcomes to date.
The stability of retail employment suggests e-commerce growth does not necessarily displace retail jobs at the aggregate level.
Automation is a key factor behind industrial job losses.

Chinese authorities can aid the transition by helping to retrain displaced industrial workers for service occupations.
Support for retraining and workforce transition policies is implied as a priority to match workers’ skills with expanding ICT, e-commerce, and sharing-economy opportunities.

IMF Blog: China’s Digital Dividend — Longmei Zhang, Sally Chen, February 6, 2019.