How the Great Lockdown Saved Lives

IMF Blog, June 2, 2020

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Since the COVID-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China in late December 2019, the disease has spread to more than 200 countries and territories.
In the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment, governments implemented unprecedented containment and mitigation measures—the Great Lockdown—which produced large short-term economic losses and a decline in global economic activity not seen since the Great Depression.
The Great Lockdown, despite its enormous short-term economic costs, has saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

Containment measures reduced mobility and were very effective in flattening the “pandemic curve.”
New Zealand: stringent containment measures (restrictions on gatherings and public events implemented when cases were in single digits, followed by school and workplace closings and stay-at-home orders a few days later) are likely to have reduced the number of fatalities by over 90 percent relative to a baseline with no containment measures.
- In other words, in a country like New Zealand, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths would have been at least ten times larger than in the absence of stringent containment measures.
Early intervention (public health response time measured as the number of days it took a country to implement containment measures after a significant outbreak) played a significant role in flattening the curve.
- Vietnam: faster containment measures witnessed a reduction in the average number of infections and deaths of 95 and 98 percent respectively.
Effect heterogeneity:
- Impacts were stronger where colder weather during the outbreak produced higher infection rates.
- Impacts were stronger where the population was older and hence more vulnerable to infection.
- A strong health system and lower population density enhanced the effectiveness of containment and mitigation strategies by making them easier to implement and enforce.
- Greater reductions in mobility (more social distancing) corresponded to greater reductions in infections and deaths.

Many measures were introduced simultaneously, complicating identification of the most effective single measure.
Evidence suggests that while all measures contributed substantially to reducing COVID-19 cases and deaths, stay-at-home orders appear to have been relatively more effective.

Fighting the pandemic is a necessity for the economy to rebound: the course of the global health crisis and the fate of the global economy are inseparably intertwined.
Early, stringent containment measures that effectively reduce mobility can substantially lower infections and fatalities and lay the foundation for medium-term growth.

Source: How the Great Lockdown Saved Lives — IMF blog, June 2, 2020.