What COVID-19 Can Teach Us About Mitigating Climate Change

IMF Blog, July 9, 2021

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Publication: Oya Celasun, Florence Jaumotte, Antonio Spilimbergo, July 9, 2021.
A global Ipsos poll conducted for the IMF found that 43 percent of people surveyed reported being more worried about climate change now than they were before the pandemic, with only 7 percent saying they are less worried.
The pandemic has heightened public awareness about the dangers of unmitigated climate change, creating an important moment for policymakers to enact bold reforms.

Human behavior is central to both crises:
- SARS-COV2 spreads between people directly, requiring social distancing for containment.
- Climate change is mostly caused by emissions of greenhouse gases from human activity, requiring us to use less and cleaner energy.
Both crises are global and economically devastating, likely to disproportionately impact the poor and deepen existing inequalities.
Both crises require global solutions:
- COVID-19 will not be resolved until all countries bring the pandemic under control through widespread vaccination.
- The climate crisis will not be solved until all emitters swing into action, bringing global emissions to net zero.

Short-termism:
- No country was prepared for the COVID-19 pandemic despite prior outbreaks (e.g., MERS, SARS, Ebola, Zika) and multiple scientific warnings.
- Some policymakers ignored public health advice and acted only after large human and economic costs were incurred, raising the question of how to respond to a danger a few decades away.
Insufficient cooperation:
- Scientific collaboration was unprecedented, but government cooperation to distribute vaccines equitably faltered early on.
- Many countries reverted to vaccine nationalism; international distribution often followed money and power despite objections, with COVAX a notable exception.

Vaccine development speed:
- Developing a new vaccine typically takes 5 to 10 years according to Johns Hopkins University.
- Most experts last year estimated delivering an effective COVID-19 vaccine would take at least 12 to 18 months; vaccines were approved only 9 months after the World Health Organization declared a pandemic.
Implications for climate technologies:
- New technologies are crucial—though not sufficient—to reach net-zero by 2050 (examples: industrial scale battery storage, green hydrogen, carbon capture, negative emission technologies).
- Advances are needed to lower costs and broaden adoption of clean technologies.
- Solar panel technology progress: an 80 percent drop in prices over the past decade demonstrates rapid progress is possible with sufficient resources.

Overcome short-termism from the outset:
- Short-termism is driven by fears of lost jobs and threatened livelihoods.
- Communicate coherent and credible policies to ensure a “just transition.”
- Carbon pricing can help governments raise revenues that can be used to create jobs and protect poorer households, supporting a longer-term vision.
Governments must play a key role:
- Governments provided backstops in past crises (e.g., Global Financial Crisis) and risk capital for COVID-19 vaccine development.
- Breakthroughs in green technologies will require government support for basic research and infrastructure.
Strengthen international collaboration:
- The Paris Climate Agreement has encouraged increased ambition, but many countries are falling short of voluntary pledges; collective pledges remain insufficient to keep global warming below 2°C.
- A supplementary agreement among the top emitters—adopting a differentiated carbon price floor to aid monitoring and limit competitiveness concerns—could help coordination.
- Enshrine current momentum toward mitigation in a collective agreement that can draw in more participants over time.
- Provide climate finance and technology transfers to developing economies to enhance mitigation and adaptation efforts.

Source: What COVID-19 Can Teach Us About Mitigating Climate Change (IMF blog, July 9, 2021)