Pandemic Scars May be Twice as Deep for Students in Developing Countries

IMF Blog, February 3, 2022

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Canonical URL: Pandemic Scars May be Twice as Deep for Students in Developing Countries

The analysis focuses on students ages 5 to 19, who make up about a quarter of the world’s population.
More than two years into the crisis, schools remain closed for millions worldwide, with many more shuttered again by the highly transmissible Omicron variant.
Learning losses and school-closure durations have been highly unequal across country groups.

School closures in the first two years of the pandemic lasted roughly twice as long in developing countries compared with advanced economies.
The share of those at school age in developing countries is nearly double that of advanced economies, magnifying the adverse impact.
The IMF’s April Fiscal Monitor estimates that education losses from classroom closures by the end of 2020 amounted to:
- as much as a quarter of the school year in advanced economies, and
- up to half in emerging and developing economies.
The unequal learning losses across countries persisted through October (as shown in the Chart of the Week).

Graduates entering weak labor markets face weaker employment and wage prospects; experience from the Great Recession of 2007-09 illustrates this effect.
The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook found that the labor market outlook for low-skilled workers and youth remains relatively bleak compared with other groups.
Together, learning losses, lower productivity, and employment disruptions may have economic consequences for decades.
Pandemic-era students could sacrifice as much as $17 trillion in lifetime earnings, according to a recent report by the United Nations and the World Bank.

The economic crunch will not end until the health crisis is controlled everywhere, per the IMF’s pandemic proposal.
Policymakers should keep their focus on severely strained social safety nets and health care and education services, as highlighted in the Fiscal Monitor.

IMF Blog — Ruchir Agarwal, February 3, 2022

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