Greenhouse Emissions Rise to Record, Erasing Drop During Pandemic
IMF Blog, June 30, 2022
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: P Bhanumati, Mark de Haan
- Published: June 30, 2022
Key findings and summary
- Emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases plunged 4.6 percent in 2020 as lockdowns in the first half of the year restricted global mobility and hampered economic activity.
- Annual global greenhouse gas emissions rebounded 6.4 percent last year to a new record, eclipsing the pre-pandemic peak as global economic activity resumed.
- The latest data come from the IMF's Climate Change Indicators Dashboard, described as a joint effort among national and international statistical organizations to provide timely data to help monitor the transition to lower carbon use.
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios assessed indicate that limiting atmospheric warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2025 at the latest.
Sector contributions to the recent increase
- Emissions from the manufacturing sector contributed significantly to recent global increases.
- Emissions from the energy sector contributed significantly to recent global increases.
- Increases from transportation and households were more muted last year as the pandemic continued to weigh on global mobility.
- Public health policy measures during the emergence of the omicron variant in the fourth quarter of last year drove down emissions of households and of the electricity sector.
Pandemic dynamics and rebound
- 2020: global greenhouse gas emissions fell by 4.6 percent due to lockdowns and reduced mobility.
- Last year: emissions rose by 6.4 percent, surpassing the pre-pandemic peak as economic activity resumed.
- The omicron variant in Q4 last year produced renewed decreases in household and electricity-sector emissions due to public health measures.
- The trajectory of emissions as economies fully reopen will be important to monitor, especially in the context of historically high fossil fuel-based energy prices.
Implications and urgency
- The rebound to a record level of emissions underscores warnings from some scientists that time is running out to meet stringent climate targets.
- Meeting the goal of limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak by 2025 at the latest, per the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios referenced.
Source: IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard and Chart of the Week (P. Bhanumati, Mark de Haan), June 30, 2022.
