New Skills and AI Are Reshaping the Future of Work

IMF Blog, January 14, 2026

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Author: Kristalina Georgieva
Date: January 14, 2026
Central thesis: Policy choices will determine whether workers and firms are adequately prepared for the AI revolution. Technological change creates both disruption and new opportunities; proactive policy can shift outcomes toward broader shared gains.

Scale of demand:
- "one in 10 job postings in advanced economies" require at least one new skill.
- "one in 20 in emerging market economies" require at least one new skill.
Occupational and sector patterns:
- Professional, technical, and managerial roles show the most demand for new skills.
- IT accounts for "more than half of this demand."
- Sector-specific trends: healthcare—surge in telecare and digital health skills; marketing—increasing demand for social media expertise.

Wage premiums:
- In the United Kingdom and the United States, job postings that include a new skill tend to pay about "3 percent" more.
- Openings with "four or more new skills" can pay "up to15 percent" more in the United Kingdom and "8.5 percent" more in the United States.
Local economic effect:
- In the US, regions with higher adoption of new skills saw employment rise by "1.3 percent for each 1 percentage point increase in the share of job postings that require new skills over the past decade."
Distributional effects:
- High-skill and low-skill workers tend to gain the most; middle-skill roles (e.g., routine office jobs) are being squeezed.
AI-specific effects:
- "Nearly 40 percent of global jobs" are exposed to AI-driven change.
- Employment levels in AI-vulnerable occupations are "3.6 percent lower after five years" in regions with high demand for AI skills compared with regions with less demand.
- Emerging evidence from the US indicates generative AI adoption reduces entry-level hiring—especially for tasks that can be automated.

Analytical tools:
- Skill Imbalance Index: reflects relative weight of potential future new skill demand versus supply, using the US as a benchmark.
- IMF AI Preparedness Index: focuses on preparedness across four areas relevant to smooth AI adoption.
Country groupings by Skill Imbalance Index:
- High demand, low supply (need investment in training and STEM): Brazil, Mexico, and Sweden.
- High supply, more modest demand (need to stimulate innovation and firm creation): Australia, Ireland and Poland.
- Emerging and low-income countries with limited demand and supply: need both sets of policies.
Skill Readiness Index leaders: Finland, Ireland, and Denmark.
- Common features: robust investment in tertiary education and lifelong learning programs.

Skills and education:
- Invest in training and ensure better education in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.
- Redesign education systems for an AI-driven economy to emphasize cognitive, creative, and technical skills that complement AI.
- Provide retraining access for workers at risk of displacement.
Labor market and mobility:
- Deploy policies to help workers adapt and acquire new skills and remain engaged in the workforce.
- Enhance worker mobility through affordable housing and flexible work arrangements.
Competition and firm dynamics:
- Strengthen competition policy and facilitate entry of new firms to prevent concentration of market power from acquisitions aimed at capturing scarce talent.
- Stimulate innovation and improve business access to finance to help firms absorb available talent.
Social protection:
- Improve social protection to support those facing difficult job transitions and facilitate reintegration into the workforce.
Cross-cutting emphasis:
- Policy choices can turn disruption into opportunity; success requires bold steps now to invest in skills, support transitions, and keep markets competitive so innovation benefits everyone.

Source: New Skills and AI Are Reshaping the Future of Work (IMF blog, January 14, 2026) by Kristalina Georgieva