Training Program Course
Public Debt Dynamics Under Uncertainty (DDUx)
This online course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty. The course discusses how to think about public debt projections when we acknowledge uncertainty about the key variables underlying debt projections (GDP growth, interest and exchange rates, and primary balances).
This course allows participants to produce and interpret fan charts (graphical tools used to describe uncertainty about the evolution of a variable over time). The course also presents the concepts of maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy) and safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer). The course explains how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and how to assess fiscal risks.
Target Audience
This course is particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
Qualifications
Some knowledge of economics would be helpful. Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
Explain what a fan chart of debt is.
Interpret a fan chart to identify risks to public debt dynamics.
Understand how to produce fan charts through simple Monte Carlo simulations.
Understand how to produce fan charts using VAR models and fiscal reaction functions.
Understand the concept of safe debt and maximum debt limit.
Evaluate debt dynamics under uncertainty.
Upcoming Offering
| Start date | End date | Location | Delivery Method | Session No. | Primary & (Interpretation) language | Apply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2025 | April 15, 2026 | Course conducted online | Online Training | OL 25.144 | English | Apply online by April 1, 2026 |