Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Target audience:
- Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.
Qualifications:
- Basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy.
- Expected to have a degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
- Proficiency in Microsoft Excel.
- Access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser is essential.

Focus: Technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Coverage:
- Overview of quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate revenue implications of changes in major taxes: personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, value added taxes, excise taxes, and international trade taxes.
- Emphasis on establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Approach:
- Builds on both conceptual and practical approaches.
- Employs hands-on activities including quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Upon completion of the course, participants should be able to:

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.