Revenue Forecasting and Analysis

Source details

Session No.: OL 24.214
Location: Course conducted online New location
Date: May 1, 2024 - April 15, 2025 (50 weeks)
Delivery Method: Online Training
Primary Language: French
Target Audience: Government officials working in ministries of finance or in revenue administrations who are charged with conducting revenue forecasts and/or assessing the revenue or distributional impact of tax policy changes.

Educational background: degree in economics or tax accountancy (ideally with some background in econometrics).
Skills: basic to intermediate understanding of tax policy; proficiency in Microsoft Excel.
Technical requirements: access to a computer with a reliable Internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser is essential.

Presented by the Fiscal Affairs Department.
Focus: technical and institutional aspects of revenue forecasting and tax policy analysis.
Coverage: quantitative methods required to forecast and evaluate the revenue implications of changes in major taxes, namely:
- personal income taxes,
- corporate income taxes,
- value added taxes,
- excise taxes,
- international trade taxes.
Institutional focus: necessity of establishing a strong institutional framework to support the revenue forecasting process.
Pedagogy: builds on both conceptual and practical approaches and employs hands-on activities to support learning.
Practical components: quizzes and quantitative exercises with real fiscal data.

Describe the role of revenue forecasting in the budget-making process.
Identify good practices relating to the institutional framework that supports the revenue forecasting process.
Identify data requirements for each method of revenue forecasting.
Apply macro-based models to forecast tax revenue.
Apply input-output models and micro-simulation techniques to analyze the revenue and distributional implications from indirect and direct taxes.
Recognize the strengths and limitations of different models.