Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

Source details

The course runs from May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks).
Session No.: OL 26.124.
Location: Course conducted online.
Delivery Method: Online Training.
Primary Language: Spanish.
The course provides an overview of how to assess public debt dynamics under uncertainty, emphasizing how to project public debt when key variables (GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances) are uncertain.
The course introduces fan charts as graphical tools to describe uncertainty in the evolution of variables over time and explains how to use fan charts to derive a safe level of debt and to assess fiscal risks.
The course presents the concepts of maximum debt limit (level of debt beyond which there could be significant negative consequences for the economy) and safe debt (a level of debt sufficiently below the debt limit to provide a comfortable and prudent buffer).

Target audience: officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for providing advice or implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.
Qualifications: Some knowledge of economics would be helpful. Basic Microsoft Excel skills are essential.

Fan charts to represent uncertainty in projections.
Treatment of uncertainty for key drivers: GDP growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and primary balances.
Derivation of safe debt from fan-chart-based uncertainty analysis.
Assessment of fiscal risks using stress tests and debt sustainability components.
Computation of fiscal adjustments consistent with debt targets.