Projecting Public Debt - The Public Debt Dynamics Tool

Source details

Session No.: OL 26.126
Location: Course conducted online
Date: May 1, 2026 - April 15, 2027 (50 weeks)
Delivery Method: Online Training
Primary Language: Arabic
Qualifications: Some knowledge of economics is helpful. Basic Microsoft Excel skills and access to a computer with a reliable internet connection and a Google Chrome web browser are essential.
Target Audience:
- All government officials are welcome to register.
- Particularly useful for officials from ministries of finance, debt agencies, central banks, and other government agencies responsible for implementing macroeconomic and debt policies.

Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, the online course explains how to project the stock of public debt over time for baseline (most likely) and alternative scenarios and how to estimate the path of fiscal adjustments necessary to reach a pre-determined target level of debt.
Two-module course that:
- Lays out the underpinnings of public debt dynamics (i.e., the evolution of public debt over time).
- Explains how these concepts are applied in an easy-to-use Excel-based Public Debt Dynamics Tool (DDT).

Uses projections of some 10 key macroeconomic and financial variables to provide public debt projections.
Produces projections under baseline and stress test scenarios.
Generates fan charts that describe uncertainty about the evolution of debt over time in a probabilistic manner.
Identifies the main drivers of public debt changes.
Computes measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target during a certain period, as specified by the user.

Compute public debt dynamics.
Identify the main drivers of public debt dynamics.
Compute measures of fiscal adjustments necessary to achieve a public debt target.
Conduct a stress test to public debt dynamics, including through the use of fan charts.
Identify the main components of a debt sustainability analysis to assess the risk of debt distress.