Fiscal Strategy in Uncertain Times (MTBF)

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Fiscal policy is central to helping governments manage exogeneous shocks, maintain macroeconomic stability, and support vulnerable populations.
Elevated debt levels, persistent uncertainty, and rising spending pressures are making fiscal policy choices increasingly difficult.
A credible fiscal strategy is essential for supporting fiscal discipline, managing risks, and maintaining confidence in public finances.
Fiscal rules, medium-term fiscal and budgetary frameworks, and supporting macro-fiscal institutions help translate fiscal strategies into practical policy decisions by linking macroeconomic forecasts, fiscal strategy, and annual budgets.
These instruments provide a clearer understanding of policy trade-offs, fiscal risks, and the medium-term implications of current decisions.
Effective public communication is critical for explaining difficult policy choices, strengthening credibility, and building public support for fiscal reform.
The seminar will examine how fiscal frameworks and PFM instruments can help governments manage shocks while preserving fiscal sustainability, focusing on fiscal rules, MTFFs and MTBFs, macro-fiscal institutions, and public communication, drawing on IMF experience and cross-country lessons.

Facilitate high-level dialogue between senior fiscal and budget policy leaders to improve their ability to manage fiscal policy in challenging times.
Specific objectives:
- Considering how fiscal rules can anchor medium-term policy decisions while allowing governments to respond flexibly to emerging spending pressures.
- Comparing experience regarding how MTFFs and MTBFs can help countries manage the fiscal costs of shocks over the medium term and the cost of longer-term spending pressures related to demographic change.
- Examining country experience with institutional arrangements that strengthen links between macro-fiscal analysis and the budget process, with particular attention to coordination between macroeconomic forecasting, fiscal strategy, and budget preparation functions.
- Sharing experience on how governments can communicate fiscal policy responses effectively to maintain credibility and public understanding during periods of stress.