Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting
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Bibliographic details
- Session: ST 25.33
- Location: Singapore, Singapore
- Dates: December 8-19, 2025 (2 weeks)
- Delivery method: Blended Training
- Primary language: English
- Status: Deadline passed
Target audience and entry qualifications
- Target Audience:
- Mid-level to senior officials responsible for monetary policy decision making
- Staff doing macroeconomic analysis and forecasting or operating macroeconomic models
- Qualifications:
- Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience.
- It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the Monetary Policy (MP) course and the online Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting (MPAFx) course.
- Participants are expected to be comfortable using quantitative software such as EViews and Matlab/Octave, although specific knowledge of these is not required.
Course description and approach
- Presented by the Institute for Capacity Development.
- Provides rigorous training on the use of simple Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) models to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting.
- Emphasizes analysis of monetary policy responses to macroeconomic imbalances and shocks.
- Tools provided enable participants to develop or extend the canonical model to fit their own monetary policy framework and selected features of their country’s economy.
- In the in-person component, country case studies are used to reinforce participant understanding and to help compare and assess a variety of possible experiences.
Core learning objectives
- Customize a simple model of an economy that embodies the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the shocks this economy may face.
- Acquire and apply tools used in modern central banks to conduct monetary policy analysis and forecasting using the small semi-structural model.
- Conduct nowcasting and near-term forecasting using estimation-based econometric techniques supported by expert judgment.
- Use the small semi-structural model to develop consistent medium-term quarterly projections of key macro variables, e.g. output, inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate.
- Identify risks in the baseline forecast and draw up medium-term projections for alternative scenarios that assume that the risks materialize.
- Start building a simple model for monetary policy analysis and forecasting using their own national data when they return home.
References