Uganda: The Informal Cross Border Trade Survey

Source details

Uganda started the Informal Cross Border Trade Survey (ICBT) to bridge gaps in external trade statistics identified by a 2003 baseline survey that revealed informal cross border trade was a significant component of merchandise trade between Uganda and neighbouring countries.
The full scale ICBT survey was launched in 2007 and has since been conducted consistently over the years.
Main objectives:
- Reduce data gaps in the balance of payments (BoP) and national accounts (NA) statistics.
- Establish the main commodities traded informally.
- Determine the value and volumes traded.
- Ascertain the direction of trade.

Current coverage:
- 20 border posts distributed across the country.
- 4 bus terminals which are departure/arrival points for buses destined to/arriving from neighboring countries.
Border selection factors:
- Volume of trade captured by the Customs Department.
- Security.
- Transport and communication links.
- Availability of supporting institutions like Uganda Revenue Authority (URA), Uganda Police, other security agencies and Immigration offices.
Survey coverage definition:
- Transactions in goods between residents and non-residents not documented in the official customs clearance system and therefore not included in official trade statistics.
- Includes goods entering or leaving at border posts but not captured by customs irrespective of the value; goods not declared or partially declared on customs documents; goods loaded or offloaded at bus terminals destined to or originating from foreign countries.
- Exclusions: smuggled goods, transit goods, and goods crossing border points beyond working hours.

Monitoring schedule:
- Data collection is done over a period of two consecutive weeks in a given month, and estimates are uprated to cover the entire month.
- Enumerators observe and record all merchandise entering and leaving the country between 7:00am and 6:00pm.
Staffing:
- Number of enumerators per border post ranges between two (2) and six (6), depending on volume of trade.
- Survey team comprises Enumerators, data Entrants and data Editors recruited from Bank of Uganda (BOU) and Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS).
- Minimum qualification: Uganda Advanced Certificate of Education (UACE) with credits in Mathematics and English at Uganda Ordinary Level of Education; higher qualifications are an advantage.
- Candidates are interviewed; enumerators undergo training prior to deployment (normally at the beginning of every financial year) including a simulation exercise.
Data collection methods and instruments:
- Main method: direct observation with occasional interaction with traders for clarification.
- Local units of measure established for main items; enumerators sometimes weigh items to ascertain quantities.
- Data recorded initially in a counter book, then transferred to Summary Form A (summary by commodity, quantity, price, mode of transport, country of origin/destination).
- Vehicle form used to capture trade data of commodities ferried on vehicles at busy border posts.

Valuation conventions:
- Exports valued on a free on board (FoB) basis.
- Imports valued at cost insurance and freight (cif).
Price collection:
- Prices of traded goods are collected from around the border on a daily basis.
Coding and integration:
- Data processing involves coding into HS and SITC nomenclatures for merging with customs data.
Treatment of partial monitoring and missing data:
- Because data is collected for only two weeks a month, an uprating model is used to derive estimates for the weeks not monitored.
- Missing data due to failure to conduct the survey in a given period is estimated using standard linear interpolation and extrapolation models.
Consistency and validation:
- Consistency checks and other data validation procedures applied during processing.

Two major dissemination channels:
- Integration into merchandise trade statistics disseminated by BOU and UBOS and included in the country’s balance of payments statement; available on a monthly, quarterly and annual basis.
- ICBT Annual Report: publishes findings, detailed description of methodology, uprating models, and other information about the survey.
Both dissemination categories are accessible via the websites of BOU and UBOS.

Funding:
- The survey requires a huge and consistent flow of funds; insufficient resources can result in months not being monitored and hinder assessment of seasonality effects. Funding is currently shared between BOU and UBOS.
Mapping to international nomenclatures:
- Transforming ICBT data into HS and SITC is often long and tedious because some items are recorded in local names that may not have direct matches.
Quantification difficulties:
- Some items lack standard units of measure (e.g., live animals).
Concealment and trader behavior:
- Traders may conceal items through bulk packaging and/or repackaging, forcing enumerators to rely on trader-provided information that may be incorrect.
Recording and pricing of assorted goods:
- Assorted packs (e.g., vehicle spare parts) complicate recording and quantification because individual parts differ in form, weight, purpose and price; recording individually is ideal but not always possible.

Differences:
- Uganda’s ICBT survey focuses mainly on merchandise trade and does not capture cross border services trade.
- COMESA Small Scale Cross Border Trade (SSCBT) program captures both merchandise and services trade and includes variables such as "gender of the trader".
Harmonization plans:
- Plans are at an advanced stage to capture the variable “gender of the trader” in the ICBT survey to harmonize with other stakeholders.

Utility:
- Since inception, the ICBT survey has provided useful information to bridge the gap in external trade statistics.
Informal trade contribution:
- Over the last five (5) years, informal trade has on average accounted for about 14.0 percent of total export earnings.
Net position:
- Overall, Uganda remains a net exporter under informal trade.