IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with the People’s Republic of China—Macao Special Administrative Region
IMF News, September 29, 2026
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- Published: September 29, 2026
Overview
- On September 24, 2026, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund concluded the Article IV Consultation with the People’s Republic of China – Macao Special Administrative Region and considered and endorsed the staff appraisal without meeting on a lapse-of-time basis.
- The authorities consented to the publication of the Staff Report prepared for this consultation.
- Press Release No. 26/311.
Economic performance and outlook
- Macao SAR’s economy remained resilient in 2025, driven by strong gaming and tourism sectors; visitor arrivals in 2025 surpassed pre-pandemic levels while gaming revenues remained below their pre-pandemic peak.
- The recovery has not yet produced a broad-based rebound in domestic demand; investment remained subdued amid still-tight credit conditions, heightened uncertainty, weakness in the property market, and under-execution of public spending.
- Inflation increased only modestly in 2025, driven mainly by higher food and transportation costs.
- Growth is expected to moderate over the medium term as activity slows in line with projected moderation in the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong SAR.
- The output gap in the non-gaming economy is expected to close gradually by 2030.
- Inflation is projected to edge up as economic slack narrows and the disinflationary effects of lower import prices from the Chinese mainland fade.
- Policy priorities to support medium-term resilience include advancing economic diversification, deepening integration with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and strengthening productivity to raise potential growth.
Risks to the outlook
- Downside risks (tilted to the downside) include:
- Intensification of geopolitical conflicts.
- Renewed trade tensions.
- Spillovers from global financial market volatility and cyber threats.
- Greater competition in the gaming industry.
- Climate-related disasters.
- A more prolonged downturn in the local property market.
- Upside scenarios include:
- Faster implementation of the authorities’ diversification agenda.
- Deeper integration with the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
- Stronger investment in high-value-added industries.
Fiscal policy and public finances
- Given ample fiscal space, fiscal policy should aim to boost domestic demand, foster economic diversification, and address population aging, guided by a well-defined medium-term fiscal framework (MTFF).
- Near-term priority: strengthen execution of budgeted spending, particularly for aging-related welfare programs and capital investment; consider additional spending if revenues overperform.
- Medium-term priority: adopt a well-defined MTFF to align fiscal resources with strategic objectives and strengthen spending efficiency.
- Priorities for public spending and reforms:
- Strengthen investment in physical, digital, and human capital.
- Calibrate pension and healthcare spending to maintain adequate protection as the population ages.
- Broaden the non-gaming tax base, including periodic review of tax exemptions and incentives to ensure they are well-targeted and cost-effective.
- Strengthen public financial management and project implementation capacity.
- Fiscal metrics in projections:
- General government balance: 2.1 (2023); 7.0 (2024); 8.3 (2025 Est.); 9.6 (2026 Projections); 7.8 (2027 Projections); 7.5 (2028 Projections); 7.2 (2029 Projections); 7.0 (2030 Projections); 6.8 (2031 Projections).
- Budgetary Central Government Balance: -0.6 (2023); 4.1 (2024); 4.9 (2025 Est.); 6.1 (2026 Projections); 4.3 (2027 Projections); 4.1 (2028 Projections); 4.0 (2029 Projections); 4.0 (2030 Projections); 4.0 (2031 Projections).
- Revenue: 23.0 (2023); 27.6 (2024); 27.5 (2025 Est.); 27.9 (2026 Projections); 27.8 (2027 Projections); 27.8 (2028 Projections); 27.8 (2029 Projections); 27.9 (2030 Projections); 28.0 (2031 Projections).
- Expenditure: 23.7 (2023); 23.6 (2024); 22.6 (2025 Est.); 21.7 (2026 Projections); 23.4 (2027 Projections); 23.6 (2028 Projections); 23.8 (2029 Projections); 23.9 (2030 Projections); 23.9 (2031 Projections).
- Fiscal Reserve (in percent of GDP): 157.8 (2023); 155.0 (2024); 159.5 (2025 Est.); 158.5 (2026 Projections); 160.3 (2027 Projections); 160.7 (2028 Projections); 160.7 (2029 Projections); 160.5 (2030 Projections); 160.1 (2031 Projections).
Financial sector and macroprudential policy
- The banking system remains resilient, but continued reforms are needed to safeguard financial stability and support financial sector development while preserving financial integrity.
- Recommended financial sector actions:
- Continue efforts to strengthen banks’ asset quality via prudent underwriting standards, adequate provisioning, and sound capital buffers.
- Carefully calibrate property-related macroprudential measures to avoid encouraging excessive risk-taking and credit risk buildup.
- Target SME support and strengthen insolvency and debt resolution frameworks to facilitate resolution of non-viable firms.
- Improve risk-based supervision, stress testing, and credit risk monitoring.
- Strengthen supervisory capacity and close regulatory and data gaps for the expanding NBFI sector; improve risk monitoring.
- Sustain ongoing efforts to strengthen AML/CFT frameworks.
Economic diversification, labor, and technology
- Further efforts are required to achieve an effective and long-lasting economic diversification.
- Achieving the target of increasing the share of non-gaming activities to 60 percent of GDP by 2030 will require:
- Further investment to build skills and attract talent.
- Closing physical and digital infrastructure gaps.
- Enhancing public administration efficiency and improving the business environment.
- Targeted, time-bound, and performance-based use of support measures such as the envisaged MOP 20 billion Government Guidance Fund to safeguard competition and limit resource misallocation.
- Sectoral transformation and talent attraction measures, including partnerships between tertiary educational institutions and industry, and leveraging digitalization and AI with appropriate financial integrity, data governance, cybersecurity safeguards, and workforce transition policies.
Climate resilience and adaptation
- Strengthening climate resilience should remain a policy priority.
- Priority actions include:
- Strengthening flood defenses and drainage systems.
- Climate-proofing critical infrastructure and tourism facilities.
- Improving land-use planning and building standards in high-risk areas.
- Strengthening early-warning systems and emergency preparedness.
- Assessing and incorporating the fiscal cost of climate adaptation and investment into Macao SAR’s MTFF.
Key statistics and projections (selected exact figures)
- Real GDP (annual percentage change): 75.3 (2023); 7.8 (2024); 4.7 (2025 Est.); 3.3 (2026 Projections); 3.1 (2027 Projections); 3.1 (2028 Projections); 3.0 (2029 Projections); 3.0 (2030 Projections); 3.0 (2031 Projections).
- Total domestic demand (annual percentage change): 10.7 (2023); 2.1 (2024); -0.6 (2025 Est.); 2.8 (2026 Projections); 3.5 (2027 Projections); 3.5 (2028 Projections); 3.5 (2029 Projections); 3.5 (2030 Projections); 3.5 (2031 Projections).
- Consumption (annual percentage change): 7.7 (2023); 2.5 (2024); 1.8 (2025 Est.); 2.5 (2026 Projections); 3.3 (2027 Projections); 3.3 (2028 Projections); 3.3 (2029 Projections); 3.3 (2030 Projections); 3.3 (2031 Projections).
- Investment (annual percentage change): 20.8 (2023); 1.0 (2024); -7.8 (2025 Est.); 4.0 (2026 Projections); 4.3 (2027 Projections); 4.3 (2028 Projections); 4.3 (2029 Projections); 4.3 (2030 Projections); 4.3 (2031 Projections).
- Net exports contribution to growth (percentage points): 66.5 (2023); 6.6 (2024); 4.9 (2025 Est.); 1.8 (2026 Projections); 1.2 (2027 Projections); 1.1 (2028 Projections); 1.1 (2029 Projections); 1.1 (2030 Projections); 1.0 (2031 Projections).
- Exports (annual percentage change): 89.0 (2023); 6.8 (2024); 4.0 (2025 Est.); 2.9 (2026 Projections); 2.8 (2027 Projections); 2.8 (2028 Projections); 2.7 (2029 Projections); 2.7 (2030 Projections); 2.7 (2031 Projections).
- Imports (annual percentage change): 12.9 (2023); -0.5 (2024); -2.6 (2025 Est.); 1.9 (2026 Projections); 3.1 (2027 Projections); 3.1 (2028 Projections); 3.1 (2029 Projections); 3.1 (2030 Projections); 3.1 (2031 Projections).
- Gross fixed capital formation (In percent of GDP): 14.6 (2023); 14.0 (2024); 12.3 (2025 Est.); 12.0 (2026 Projections); 12.2 (2027 Projections); 12.3 (2028 Projections); 12.4 (2029 Projections); 12.6 (2030 Projections); 12.8 (2031 Projections).
- National savings (In percent of GDP): 44.6 (2023); 47.8 (2024); 51.8 (2025 Est.); 52.1 (2026 Projections); 51.6 (2027 Projections); 51.3 (2028 Projections); 50.9 (2029 Projections); 50.5 (2030 Projections); 50.2 (2031 Projections).
- Non-gaming output gap (In percent of non-gaming GDP): -3.5 (2023); -5.2 (2024); -2.0 (2025 Est.); -1.6 (2026 Projections); -1.1 (2027 Projections); -0.7 (2028 Projections); -0.4 (2029 Projections); -0.1 (2030 Projections); 0.0 (2031 Projections).
- Headline inflation (Average): 0.9 (2023); 0.7 (2024); 0.3 (2025 Est.); 1.8 (2026 Projections); 1.9 (2027 Projections); 2.1 (2028 Projections); 2.1 (2029 Projections); 2.2 (2030 Projections); 2.2 (2031 Projections).
- Unemployment rate (Annual average): 2.7 (2023); 1.8 (2024); 1.9 (2025 Est.); 1.7 (2026 Projections); 1.7 (2027 Projections); 1.7 (2028 Projections); 1.7 (2029 Projections); 1.7 (2030 Projections); 1.7 (2031 Projections).
- Cyclically Adjusted Non-Gaming Balance (In percent of potential non-gaming GDP): -24.5 (2023); -25.3 (2024); -25.6 (2025 Est.); -25.7 (2026 Projections); -26.3 (2027 Projections); -26.9 (2028 Projections); -27.4 (2029 Projections); -27.8 (2030 Projections); -28.1 (2031 Projections).
- Current account (In percent of GDP): 29.3 (2023); 33.7 (2024); 39.6 (2025 Est.); 39.7 (2026 Projections); 39.1 (2027 Projections); 38.7 (2028 Projections); 38.1 (2029 Projections); 37.7 (2030 Projections); 37.2 (2031 Projections).
- Gross external debt: 360.5 (2023); 311.8 (2024); 321.0 (2025 Est.); 324.0 (2026 Projections); 324.5 (2027 Projections); 324.7 (2028 Projections); 326.7 (2029 Projections); 327.8 (2030 Projections); 329.2 (2031 Projections).
- Nominal GDP (In millions of U.S. dollars): 45,627 (2023); 49,467 (2024); 52,061 (2025 Est.); 54,672 (2026 Projections); 57,306 (2027 Projections); 60,145 (2028 Projections); 62,755 (2029 Projections); 65,670 (2030 Projections); 68,660 (2031 Projections).
- Per capita GDP (In thousands of U.S. dollars): 67 (2023); 72 (2024); 74 (2025 Est.); 77 (2026 Projections); 80 (2027 Projections); 83 (2028 Projections); 86 (2029 Projections); 90 (2030 Projections); 92 (2031 Projections).
- Memorandum note: Projections start in 2025.