IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement on the First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement for Rwanda
IMF News, October 6, 2026
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- Published: October 6, 2026
Staff-level agreement and financing access
- IMF staff and the Rwandan authorities reached a staff-level agreement on policies and reforms needed to complete the first review of Rwanda’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement.
- Upon completion of the review by the IMF Executive Board, Rwanda will have access to approximately US$35.7million.
- The staff-level agreement is subject to approval by IMF Management and the IMF Executive Board.
- Completion of the review would give Rwanda access to SDR 26.433 million, equivalent to about US$35.7million, under the ECF-supported arrangement.
Macroeconomic performance and key indicators
- Real GDP growth reached 9.7 percent in the first half of 2026.
- Real GDP growth is projected at 7.8 percent in 2026 and 7.0 percent in 2027.
- Headline inflation reached 15.7 percent in August 2026.
- The National Bank of Rwanda’s medium-term inflation target is 5 percent.
- Foreign exchange reserves covered about four months of imports.
- Fiscal deficit fell to 4.8 percent in fiscal year 2025/26.
- All end-June quantitative performance criteria under the program were met.
Drivers, shocks, and risks
- Strong export and remittance inflows helped narrow the current account deficit.
- Inflationary pressures reflect pre-existing price pressures and spillovers from the war in the Middle East, including higher international oil and fertilizer prices.
- Downside risks identified: continued volatility in global commodity prices, heightened trade and geopolitical tensions, climate shock related to El Niño, and tighter global financing conditions.
- Upside potential: the new petroleum procurement framework led by the Rwanda National Energy Company (RNEC) could improve fuel supply security and make fuel procurement costs more competitive.
Program implementation, reforms, and conditionality
- Program implementation has been satisfactory according to IMF staff.
- Authorities are advancing all structural benchmarks, including:
- reforms to strengthen the investment framework;
- measures to deepen the domestic securities market;
- measures to deepen the foreign exchange market.
- Because inflation exceeded the program’s consultation band, the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause will be discussed at the IMF Executive Board.
Policy recommendations and priorities
- Monetary policy:
- The National Bank of Rwanda (NBR) has tightened monetary policy.
- An appropriately tight, data-driven monetary policy stance should remain focused on returning inflation toward the NBR’s medium-term target of 5 percent and preventing inflation increases from spreading through the economy.
- Fiscal policy:
- Sustained fiscal consolidation is critical to preserve a moderate risk of debt distress and rebuild policy buffers.
- Fiscal consolidation should be supported by stronger domestic revenue mobilization, spearheaded by the expected second Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MRTS-2).
- Careful prioritization of foreign-financed capital expenditure is needed while protecting social and other priority spending.
- Better public investment management and closer monitoring of fiscal risks are recommended to reinforce fiscal consolidation efforts.
- Continued IMF support:
- The IMF will continue to support Rwanda’s efforts to preserve macroeconomic stability, reduce inflation, and advance priority reforms.