IMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Guyana
IMF News, October 8, 2026
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- Published: October 8, 2026
Main findings on recent performance
- Guyana’s economy "continues to grow rapidly, driven by strong oil and non-oil activity, with the outlook remaining highly favorable." (IMF Executive Board)
- Real GDP grew by over 19 percent in 2025, with oil and non-oil GDP increasing by 21 percent and 14 percent, respectively.
- Oil production exceeded 900,000 barrels per day in 2025.
- Average inflation "remained contained at 3.3 percent in 2025" but "edged up in 2026, reflecting higher global energy and food prices."
- The external position strengthened: the current account surplus widened; gross international reserves reached about US$1.4 billion; the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) accumulated about US$3.3 billion (over 12 percent of GDP) by end-2025.
- Monetary operations helped contain liquidity and exchange rate pressures; fiscal and supply-side measures cushioned near-term price pressures.
- Economic fundamentals are assessed as strong, while "wage and competitiveness indicators warrant continued monitoring."
Fiscal and public finance assessment
- Strong oil revenues helped narrow the overall fiscal deficit to 5.5 percent of GDP in 2025 while large public investments continued.
- The non-oil primary deficit as a share of non-oil GDP declined slightly in 2025.
- The accumulation of oil revenue in the NRF has helped build external and fiscal buffers, and investments in physical and human capital have supported non-oil growth and social outcomes.
- The fiscal deficit "is expected to widen somewhat in 2026 due to transfers and electricity subsidies before improving in 2027."
- Recommendation: "If oil prices remain persistently high, a larger share of additional revenue should be saved in line with absorptive capacity."
- Recommendation: Spending should continue to prioritize productivity-enhancing projects and support for the vulnerable, while strengthening spending oversight and the performance of some key public enterprises.
- Recommendation: Consider improving targeting of subsidies, and gradually replace broad price-mitigating measures with targeted support.
- Recommendation: Build a comprehensive medium- and long-term fiscal strategy; use the non-oil primary balance as the main operational target, strengthening gradually over the next decade to a level consistent with a chosen long-run anchor (for example, preserving the real per capita value of NRF assets).
- Recommendation: During the transition, public spending should remain aligned with development needs and absorptive capacity, accounting for "the high cost of public service delivery in a low population density country such as Guyana."
External sector, reserves, and oil
- Oil production "is expected to continue expanding," and non-oil growth is "projected to average about 7 percent over the medium term."
- The external and fiscal positions "should strengthen as new oil fields come onstream."
- Upside risks: further oil discoveries, stronger construction, and higher oil prices.
- Downside risks: oil price volatility, overheating pressures, and climate shocks.
- Recommendation: Manage liquidity through FX operations, greater use of treasury bills and reserve requirements, and keep broad money growth broadly aligned with nominal non-oil GDP growth.
Financial sector, governance, and structural policies
- The banking system "remains well capitalized, liquid, and with improving asset quality."
- Recommendation: Maintain vigilance on concentration risks and develop a comprehensive macroprudential framework.
- Rapid housing market growth warrants continued close monitoring and development of a real estate price index.
- Recommendation: Enhance cybersecurity standards as financial services become increasingly digital.
- Staff welcomes efforts to strengthen public sector transparency, service delivery, and governance. Priorities include:
- Resolving outstanding cost-oil audits.
- Improving timeliness of public enterprise and agency accounts.
- Strengthening audit capacity, especially in the oil and gas sector.
- Ensuring consistent compliance with the procurement framework.
- Recommendation: Continue strengthening AML/CFT and anti-corruption frameworks, including by strengthening the Integrity Commission and the asset declaration regime.
Climate, energy, and statistics
- The Gas-to-Energy project "is expected to reduce reliance on fuel-based power generation, lower energy costs, and support competitiveness."
- Recommendation: Continue diversification efforts to strengthen human capital, expand employment opportunities, address labor shortages, and improve food security.
- Recommendation: Strengthen resilience to climate risks through investments in sea defenses, drainage, and climate-resilient agriculture.
- Staff welcomes continued efforts to strengthen official statistics. Priorities include updating national accounts and price statistics, further strengthening external statistics, maintaining regular labor force surveys, publishing more complete census results, and rolling out a new household budget survey.
Executive Board assessment and policy guidance
- The Executive Board concluded the Article IV Consultation with Guyana and assessed that:
- Prudent macroeconomic policies continue to support strong growth.
- The authorities’ development strategy appropriately emphasizes diversification, resilience, and sustainability, while building buffers through rapid NRF accumulation and maintaining one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in the Western Hemisphere.
- "Available indicators do not point to clear overheating or competitiveness pressures, though strong wage growth and wage-based real exchange rate measures warrant close monitoring."
- Monetary policy guidance: remain consistent with the stabilized exchange rate arrangement and price stability; activate FX operations, treasury bills, and reserve requirements as needed; consider additional tightening if demand, credit, or exchange rate pressures intensify.
- Over time: strengthen the monetary framework by activating the interest rate channel, deepening financial markets, improving macroprudential tools, and gradually reducing broad price-mitigating measures. The current exchange rate regime "remains appropriate," while greater flexibility could be considered over the medium term.
Key statistics and projections (select figures from IMF staff estimates/projections)
- Real GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2024: 43.8; 2025 (Est.): 19.3; 2026 (Proj.): 22.3
- Real non-oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2024: 13.7; 2025: 14.0; 2026: 10.2
- Real oil GDP (year-over-year percent change): 2024: 57.7; 2025: 21.1; 2026: 26.1
- Consumer prices (average): 2024: 2.9; 2025: 3.3; 2026: 4.1
- Central Government (percent of non-oil GDP) — Revenue: 2024: 43.5; 2025: 45.9; 2026: 42.6
- Central Government (percent of non-oil GDP) — Expenditure: 2024: 64.5; 2025: 60.7; 2026: 62.4
- Overall balance (after grants) (percent of non-oil GDP): 2024: -20.9; 2025: -14.3; 2026: -19.5
- Non-oil primary balance (after grants) (percent of non-oil GDP): 2024: -38.2; 2025: -36.9; 2026: -37.7
- Revenue (percent of GDP): 2024: 15.3; 2025: 17.8; 2026: 14.0
- Expenditure (percent of GDP): 2024: 22.6; 2025: 23.5; 2026: 20.5
- Overall balance (after grants) (percent of GDP): 2024: -7.3; 2025: -5.5; 2026: -6.4
- Total public sector gross debt (percent of GDP): 2024: 24.3; 2025: 28.9; 2026: 27.5
- Broad money (year-over-year percent change): 2024: 22.6; 2025: 28.4; 2026: 25.4
- Domestic credit of the banking system (year-over-year percent change): 2024: 25.5; 2025: 26.1; 2026: 20.1
- Current account balance (US$ million): 2024: 4,060.5; 2025: 5,725.8; 2026: 10,576.6
- Current account balance (percent of GDP): 2024: 16.5; 2025: 21.4; 2026: 28.5
- Gross official reserves (US$ million): 2024: 1,009.8; 2025: 1,356.2; 2026: 2,446.6
- Gross official reserves (percent of GDP): 2024: 4.1; 2025: 5.1; 2026: 6.6
- Crude oil production (million barrels): 2024: 225.4; 2025: 261.1; 2026: 328.5
- Nominal GDP (GY$ billion): 2024: 5,142.2; 2025: 5,580.5; 2026: 7,729.0
- Nominal non-oil GDP (GY$ billion): 2024: 1,803.4; 2025: 2,162.5; 2026: 2,546.5
- GDP per capita (US$): 2024: 25,796.6; 2025: 26,103.6; 2026: 35,444.6
- Population, 2025 (thousands; preliminary): 1,025
- Life expectancy at birth (years), 2022: 66
- Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births), 2023: 14
- Human Development Index rank, 2022: 95