Press Briefing Transcript: Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2026

IMF News, October 14, 2026

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Press Briefing Transcript: Global Policy Agenda, Annual Meetings 2026

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• Published: October 14, 2026

Global outlook and key risks

• Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the global economy "remains resilient" but that "this resilience is reaching its limits."
• Georgieva reported a "negative energy supply shock triggered by the war in the Middle East" and a "positive AI demand shock" pulling growth in opposite directions.
• Key headline figures:
  • Global growth of about 3.1 percent in 2026, "unchanged from April but lower than the 3.4 percent we achieved last year."
  • Global imbalances grew "yet again" to 0.7 percent of GDP in 2025.
• Georgieva warned that yields in advanced economies have risen "to multi‑decade highs" due to persistent inflation, stronger investor demand, higher expected future growth linked to AI, and fiscal fundamentals.
• She said buffers are being depleted: "energy and fiscal" buffers are being depleted; inflation "in many places is stubbornly high"; higher interest rates add to debt service pressures.

Divergence across country groups

• Countries doing relatively better:
  • Economies closely integrated in the AI supply chain, "many of them are right here in Asia—including Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, Singapore."
  • Energy exporters not affected by wars.
• Countries taking the biggest hit:
  • "Low‑income countries and fragile and conflict‑affected states, especially those that are energy importers and/or left out of the technology boom."
• On low‑income countries Georgieva said:
  • Debt service costs have risen "from 6 percent a decade ago to 14 percent of their revenues today."
  • Development assistance is falling and foreign investors’ appetite for risk is subdued.

IMF forecasts, country cases, and interventions

• Senegal:
  • Georgieva said IMF staff have reached a staff‑level agreement "in the order of $2.2 billion" to help Senegal address undisclosed debt and fiscal problems.
  • She described the IMF's role as providing objective analysis of the debt and using the IMF’s "good offices" to bring creditors and the debtor together; she emphasized this as a first test case for the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable playbook.
• Europe and advanced economies:
  • Georgieva said France aims for a budget that puts deficit and debt on a downward trajectory but that it "will take time."
  • She noted the U.K. has taken "decisive" action to reduce debt and deficit and that markets pay particular attention to the U.K. given London’s role in global finance.
• ASEAN and Thailand:
  • Georgieva urged countries to "lift up your growth" and strengthen macro foundations; she highlighted that trade within ASEAN is 22 percent while trade with the European Union is 60 percent.
  • She observed Thailand is "on the frontier of benefiting from the AI investment boom."
• Caribbean and small island states:
  • Georgieva recommended (1) concentrate on strong fundamentals (fiscal position, revenue raising, prioritize human capital), (2) deepen regional cooperation, and (3) make full use of membership in international organizations and concessional instruments.
  • She noted Jamaica and Barbados have used the Resilience and Sustainability Trust and said vulnerable small economies should be judged on size and vulnerabilities as well as income.

AI, cyber risk, and technology-related policy

• Georgieva emphasized Amara’s Law: "we tend to overestimate the short‑term benefits of new technologies and underestimate the long‑term gains," implying short‑term disappointment and risk of a disorderly market correction.
• She warned that "AI‑enabled cyber-attacks are already in reality," citing a news example from France where a cyber‑attack affected refrigeration and food spoilage.
• Policy guidance on AI and technology:
  • Strengthen cyber resilience.
  • Address excessive concentration linked to the technology cycle.
  • For governments: improve the business environment, strengthen competition, invest in digital and energy infrastructure, and embrace active labor market policies.
  • For the private sector: play an essential role in AI adoption and job creation.

Policy recommendations and financial instruments

• Fiscal policy:
  • Georgieva's "loudest call": "Make urgent repairs to the fiscal house before the cracks widen."
  • Specific actions: enhance revenues, rationalize spending, and improve public financial management.
• Social protection and energy/food shocks:
  • "As energy and food prices rise, protect people, not prices"—provide temporary and targeted support to the most vulnerable while preserving price signals.
• Monetary policy:
  • Urged central banks to "stay laser‑focused on their price stability mandates."
  • "The case for tightening is strongest where inflation remains above target and economic activity is high"; "now may be a good time for a prudent hawkish bias in many countries."
• Support for low‑income countries:
  • IMF reforms: Georgieva said the IMF completed a set of policy reforms "addressing our ability to identify risks and analyze imbalances in surveillance," strengthen support for high‑impact and achievable reforms, be more country‑specific, and upgrade debt sustainability tools.
  • Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust (PRGT): Georgieva said the PRGT has been reformed "so we can triple lending to low‑income countries when it is necessary" and urged members to complete their commitments.
  • Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT): Georgieva encouraged members to replenish the CCRT, noting "we still have a bit of money in it" but frequent use requires replenishment.
  • For debt‑distressed countries: support fast debt treatment and use the IMF’s "good offices" and analytical work to accelerate solutions.

Scenarios and structural drivers of higher yields

• Georgieva listed six drivers (in different combinations across countries) that support a "higher yield environment":
  • Energy prices up (noted in the context of "winter is coming").
  • Inflation up.
  • Interest rates up.
  • AI‑related higher expected future growth and investment demand.
  • Stronger investor demand.
  • Fiscal fundamentals (debt levels).
• She said the "floor is going up" for borrowing costs in emerging markets: spreads may be stable but benchmark yields have risen, increasing debt service burdens.

Operational notes and meeting logistics

• Georgieva said the Global Policy Agenda "has been shaped by the assessment of the global economy" and that the IMF "takes to heart our responsibility to help our members navigate the cross‑currents of the global economy."
• She thanked the host country, Thailand, for arrangements and hospitality.
• Georgieva noted a follow‑up engagement with Minister Aljadaan on Saturday during the Annual Meetings.

References

• Kristalina Georgieva