External Balance Assessment (EBA): Data and Estimates

Source details

The IMF's Research Department developed the External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology for assessing current accounts and exchange rates.
Key methodological updates:
- 2013: Original development of the EBA methodology.
- 2015 modifications: extended the sample used in estimation (from 2010 to 2013), allowed nonlinearities in the impact of demographics, and added the REER level model to the EBA toolkit.
- 2018 review: focused on (i) further extending the sample used in estimation (from 2013 to 2016); (ii) improving modeling of demographics, the measurement of external positions, and institutional quality; (iii) improving macroeconomic policy variables—foreign exchange intervention and credit excesses; and (iv) developing complementary tools to inform the role of structural and trade policies in explaining current account imbalances.
- 2022 review: changes focused on (i) extending the sample used in estimation (until 2019, and including three additional countries); (ii) improving construction of the terms-of-trade and oil and gas reserves variables; (iii) including an IMF staff-produced measure of capital controls; and (iv) simplifying regression models by only keeping current account and exchange rate determinants that are statistically robust.
A description of the latest generation of the EBA models is available in IMF Working Paper No. 2023/047, issued on March 3, 2023.

EBA model results:
- Estimates from the 2025 EBA exercise (analysis of 2024 current accounts and real effective exchange rates).
- Estimates of earlier exercises: 2023 EBA, 2022 EBA, 2021 EBA, 2020 EBA, 2019 EBA, 2018 EBA, 2017 EBA, 2016 EBA, 2015 EBA, 2014 EBA.
Data inputs and codes:
- Data inputs and programs used in the analysis of 2024 current accounts and (index) real effective exchange rates and level real effective exchange rates.
- Includes coefficient estimates and graphical comparisons of actual and regression-implied values.
- Data inputs for earlier vintages can be made available upon request.

The EBA exercise drew on data and estimates available ahead of publication, some of which may have become outdated.
Some data may have different definitions or coverage than IMF or IMF member country statistics, and some data definitions may not be fully comparable across countries.
Some data, including for capital controls and foreign exchange intervention policies, are imperfect proxy measures.
Numerical values used in the exercise to indicate desirable policy settings may be benchmarks that do not always fully represent the views of IMF staff.
The information and estimates available are not to be considered as representing the assessments or views of the IMF or its Executive Board.