Guatemala: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 1, 2016
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- Guatemala: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 1, 2016
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475531473.002
Macroeconomic performance
- Economy grew at 4.1 percent in 2015, slightly above potential.
- Growth drivers in 2015:
- Private consumption supported by lower oil prices and strong remittances.
- Public consumption and investment slowed during the crisis.
- With inflation well anchored, monetary policy was eased to support growth.
Outlook and projections
- Growth is set to return to its trend rate of 3.8 percent in 2016.
- Growth is projected to gradually rise to 4 percent in the medium term, reflecting the positive impact of efforts to increase transparency and efficiency in public spending.
- The macroeconomic outlook is characterized as benign.
External position and reserves
- Strong remittances boosted the external position, creating a comfortable reserve cushion.
Monetary conditions and inflation
- Inflation described as well anchored.
- Monetary policy was eased to support growth.
Policy implications and reform emphasis
- Efforts to increase transparency and efficiency in public spending are highlighted as contributing to medium-term growth prospects.
- Anti-corruption reform agenda and public sector improvements are implied priorities linked to better fiscal outcomes and growth.
International Monetary Fund. Guatemala: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex (IMF Staff Country Report No. 2016/281).