Lebanon: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 17, 2015
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- Lebanon: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 17, 2015
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513567563.002
Short-term outlook and macro vulnerabilities
- The Syrian crisis and the associated inflow of refugees continue to dominate Lebanon’s short-term outlook, compounding long-standing policy weaknesses and vulnerabilities.
- Political paralysis has set in, with virtually no progress on the structural front.
- Growth has remained modest and insufficient to make a dent in rising poverty and unemployment.
- Financial conditions have nonetheless remained stable, as deposit inflows continue to fund the economy and sizeable buffers support the credibility of the exchange rate peg.
Fiscal position and public debt
- A welcome improvement in the primary fiscal position in 2014 was largely due to temporary factors, and will not be sustained absent adjustment efforts.
- Without additional effort, Lebanon’s already-sizable public debt burden will only worsen.
Financial sector and exchange rate credibility
- Deposit inflows continue to fund the economy.
- Sizeable buffers support the credibility of the U.S. dollar peg.