Turkey: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
IMF Staff Country Reports, December 5, 2014
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Turkey: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation
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Bibliographic details
- Published: December 5, 2014
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484304501.002
Executive summary
- Turkey’s economy has grown on average by 6 percent annually since 2010.
- Growth has come at the expense of a large external deficit, making the economy sensitive to changes in external financing conditions.
- Macroeconomic policies have been too accommodative.
- Inflation is high and well above the authorities’ target.
- Real policy interest rates remain negative.
- The exchange rate continues to be stronger than suggested by fundamentals.
Risks and vulnerabilities
- Main risk: a capital flows reversal, associated with monetary policy normalization in advance economies or changes in the country risk premium.
- Other risks:
- Slower European growth.
- Geopolitical issues.
- The strength of the policy framework.
Policy implications and priorities (implicit in staff assessment)
- Reassess macroeconomic policy stance to reduce vulnerability to external financing shifts.
- Tighten monetary policy to address high inflation and negative real policy interest rates.
- Allow exchange rate adjustment toward levels suggested by fundamentals to reduce external imbalance pressures.
- Strengthen policy framework to mitigate risks from external and regional shocks.
Key statistics and publication metadata
- Date: December 5, 2014
- Pages: 79
- Volume: 2014
- Issue: 329
- Series: Country Report No. 2014/329
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484304501.002
- Stock No: 1TUREA2014001
- ISBN: 9781484304501
- ISSN: 1934-7685
Subjects and keywords covered
- Subjects: Balance of payments; Banking; Current account deficits; Fiscal policy; Fiscal stance; Foreign exchange; Inflation; National accounts; Prices
- Keywords: contribution to the headline figure; CR; Current account deficits; deficit; Europe; fiscal policy; Fiscal stance; FX; FX pass-through; FX rollover problem; GDP in U.S. dollars; Global; IFC CPS; Inflation; inflation rate; ISCR; Middle East; North Africa; percent GDP; PPI inflation; price
Turkey: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation (IMF Staff Country Report 2014/329), December 5, 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484304501.002