Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
IMF Staff Country Reports, February 26, 2014
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- Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 26, 2014
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475570809.002
Summary
- Reviews the key points of Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia).
- Growth in FYR Macedonia continues to strengthen, although the recovery is not yet broad-based.
- External and fiscal vulnerabilities have risen.
Key findings
- Private non-debt-creating capital flows have slowed and could leave the reserve path increasingly driven by an accumulation of external public debt.
- Central government debt has increased by about 15 percentage points since the beginning of the global financial crisis, in the context of growing broader public sector operations.
- In the absence of domestic spillovers, the structural improvement in the trade deficit will be gradual, and growth could be uneven.
Vulnerabilities and external risks
- Slowing private non-debt-creating capital flows increase reliance on external public debt accumulation to support reserves.
- Structural trade deficit improvement expected to be gradual without domestic policy spillovers.
- Growth remains uneven and not yet broad-based, implying potential downside risks to the recovery.
Policy implications and considerations
- Monitor composition of capital flows closely to assess reserve path sustainability.
- Address rising fiscal vulnerabilities associated with increased central government debt and broader public sector operations.
- Strengthen domestic spillovers and structural measures to support a broader-based and more balanced recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia: Second Post-Program Monitoring Discussions