Portugal: Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
IMF Staff Country Reports, February 22, 2017
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- Portugal: Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 22, 2017
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475580198.002
Economic outlook and growth
- The Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions highlight a welcome upturn in growth in the second half of 2016 after a sluggish first half.
- Stronger exports are cited as a key driver of the improved performance in the second half of 2016.
- Unemployment declined further to precrisis levels, supporting an improved near-term outlook.
- Medium-term growth could be put on a more sustainable footing by reducing structural bottlenecks and high levels of corporate debt.
Fiscal position and public debt
- The revised 2016 fiscal target appears likely to have been met.
- Prospective public outlays for banking sector recapitalization continue to weigh on public debt trends.
Banking sector and financial stability
- Banking sector recapitalization needs are identified as a source of potential public outlays that affect public debt dynamics.
- Corporate debt levels are highlighted as a structural vulnerability that could impede sustainable medium-term growth.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Reduce structural bottlenecks to support more sustainable medium-term growth.
- Address high levels of corporate debt to improve resilience and growth prospects.
- Monitor and manage prospective public outlays for banking sector recapitalization to contain adverse impacts on public debt trends.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept. "Portugal: Fifth Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Portugal", IMF Staff Country Reports 2017, 058 (2017).
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- Country Report