Nigeria: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
IMF Staff Country Reports, April 5, 2017
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- Nigeria: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 5, 2017
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781475591903.002
Economic context and drivers of the 2016 downturn
- Low oil prices and falling oil production significantly weakened the Nigerian economy.
- The country entered a recession in 2016.
- Growth contracted by 1.5 percent in 2016.
- Annual inflation doubled to 18.6 percent, reflecting higher electricity costs and fuel tariffs, a weaker naira, and accommodating monetary conditions.
- Despite significantly lower capital spending, the consolidated fiscal deficit increased from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016.
- Agriculture maintained a continuing strong performance amid the broader downturn.
Key indicators and projections
- 2016 growth: contracting by 1.5 percent.
- 2016 inflation: 18.6 percent (annual).
- Consolidated fiscal deficit: from 3.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 4.7 percent of GDP in 2016.
- 2017 baseline growth projection under unchanged policies: would pick up only slightly to 0.8 percent, mostly reflecting some recovery in oil production and continued strong performance in agriculture.
Outlook and risks
- Under unchanged policies, the outlook is characterized as challenging.
- The modest projected recovery in 2017 relies primarily on some recovery in oil production and sustained agricultural performance.
- Persistently weak oil-sector dynamics, exchange rate pressures (weaker naira), and elevated inflation pose downside risks to the recovery.
International Monetary Fund. Nigeria: 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria (April 5, 2017).
Content in this bundle
- Country Report