Iraq: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 26, 2019
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- Iraq: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 26, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513508887.002
Key findings on socioeconomic conditions
- Iraq’s social conditions remain harsh following the war with ISIS, with slow progress at reconstruction, weak public services and a lack of job opportunities.
- Geopolitical tensions, the potential for social unrest in a context of weak public services and lack of progress in combatting corruption pose additional risks.
Fiscal and external outlook and risks
- In the absence of policy changes, a widening budget deficit is expected to divert resources away from essential investment to rebuild the country and improve public services, while eroding reserves and posing risks to medium-term sustainability.
- Expenditure rigidities and limited fiscal buffers imply a significant vulnerability to oil price shocks in a context of volatile prices.
- The fiscal and external positions are expected to continue to deteriorate over the medium term absent policy changes—with reserves falling below adequate levels and fiscal buffers eroded.
- In a context of highly volatile oil prices, the major risk to the outlook is a fall in oil prices which would lower exports and budgetary revenues, leading to an even sharper decline in reserves or higher public debt.
Policy implications and priorities (as emphasized in the report)
- Implement policy changes to avoid diversion of resources from reconstruction and essential public services.
- Strengthen fiscal buffers and address expenditure rigidities to reduce vulnerability to oil price shocks.
- Advance reconstruction efforts and public service delivery to mitigate social hardship and the risk of unrest.
- Intensify efforts to combat corruption to support governance and social trust.
Publication and report identifiers
- Date: July 26, 2019
- Pages: 85
- Volume: 2019
- Issue: 248
- Series: Country Report No. 2019/248
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513508887.002
- Stock No: 1IRQEA2019001
- ISBN: 9781513508887
- ISSN: 1934-7685
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. "Iraq: 2019 Article IV Consultation and Proposal for Post-Program Monitoring-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Iraq", IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 248 (2019).
Content in this bundle
- 1irqea2019001