Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Budget Framework and Fiscal Risk Statement
IMF Staff Country Reports, November 15, 2019
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Bibliographic details
- Published: November 15, 2019
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513520377.002
Summary
- This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine discusses medium-term budget framework (MTBF) and fiscal risk statement.
- To strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged MTBF as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21).
- The authorities have been taking steps to improve their understanding and disclosure of fiscal risks and have made significant progress with the inclusion of a summary fiscal risk statement in the draft Budget Declaration.
MTBF implementation and practical requirements
- The success of the pilot MTBF exercise depends critically on the ability of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to enforce compliance with ceilings during the annual budget.
- The MoF will need to develop a robust report explaining the ceilings for cabinet discussion and for presentation to the legislature.
- Key MTBF-related terms and concepts reflected in the source: baseline expenditure estimate, budget challenge function, budget declaration, expenditure ceiling, expenditure envelope, MTBF process.
Fiscal risk analysis and disclosure
- Significant progress: inclusion of a summary fiscal risk statement in the draft Budget Declaration.
- Remaining needs:
- Establishment of institutional structures to support fiscal risk analyses and disclosure.
- Improved understanding and systematic disclosure of fiscal risks beyond the summary statement.
Institutional gaps and capacity
- Institutional structures to support fiscal risk analyses and disclosure are yet to be established.
- Capacity development priorities implied by the report:
- Strengthen MoF capacity to enforce ceilings and to conduct and present ceiling justification.
- Build analytic and reporting capacity for comprehensive fiscal risk statements and supporting institutional frameworks.
- Enhance the budget challenge function and build budget challenge capacity across relevant units.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Implement a full-fledged MTBF consistent with the Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21).
- Ensure the MoF can enforce compliance with expenditure ceilings during annual budget preparation and execution.
- Produce a robust explanatory report on ceilings for cabinet discussion and legislative presentation.
- Institutionalize fiscal risk analysis and disclosure mechanisms to move beyond a summary fiscal risk statement.
Key statistics and publication metadata (as presented)
- Publication date: November 15, 2019
- Pages: 41
- Volume: 2019
- Issue: 342
- Series: Country Report No. 2019/342
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513520377.002
- Stock No: 1UKREA2019003
- ISBN: 9781513520377
- ISSN: 1934-7685
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. "Ukraine: Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Budget Framework and Fiscal Risk Statement", IMF Staff Country Reports 2019, 342 (2019).
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- 1ukrea2019003