Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling

IMF Staff Country Reports, May 15, 2020

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Canonical URL: Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling

Seventh of the planned eight short-term technical assistance (TA) missions to the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB).
Sponsored by the Swedish International Development Agency.
Objective: help the NBRB enhance its modeling, forecasting and policy analysis capacity, and the forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS).
Context: NBRB is reforming its monetary policy framework in line with recommendations of past IMF TA missions and its Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting with the aim of eventually adopting inflation targeting (IT).

Reviewed initial conditions for the NBRB’s forecasting round.
Compiled a QPM-based forecast as part of the NBRB’s September forecasting round.
Worked on strengthening processes within the FPAS.
Focus on better integrating the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the decision-making process.

Transitioning to inflation targeting (IT) would require, among other measures, strengthening the monetary policy forecasting and analysis system (FPAS).
Better integration of the core quarterly projection model (QPM) into the policy decision-making process is necessary for the transition to IT.
The mission’s work supports NBRB reforms already underway and the Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting.

Subject: Fiscal policy, Inflation targeting, Labor, Monetary policy
Keywords: CR, forecast scenario, FPAS, Inflation targeting, ISCR, monetary policy, monetary policy meeting, NBRB flagship publication, Near-term forecast, NTF expert, QPM, QPM team, TA mission

Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling (May 15, 2020).

Preface and Executive Summary
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