Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling

IMF Staff Country Reports, May 15, 2020

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Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary Policy Modeling

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Bibliographic details

• Published: May 15, 2020
• Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513544199.002

Mission overview and objectives

• This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses on various aspects of monetary policy modeling for the Republic of Belarus.
• The TA mission was the fifth from a series of quarterly IMF TA missions focused on forecasting and analysis system capacity building.
• Primary aims:
  • To simulate initial conditions and compile a quarterly projection model (QPM)-based forecast scenario as part of a practical forecasting round at the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) in March.
  • To work with the modeling team to deepen its understanding of the QPM’s role in policy decision making and in internal communication.

Medium-term TA project design and activities

• The medium-term TA project aims to help the NBRB with medium-term inflation forecasting and policy analysis and related tools to effectively support policy making.
• The project composition:
  • A series of TA and training missions.
  • Focus areas: preparation of forecasts and policy analyses, the medium-term forecasting and policy analysis model, and presentations of the forecasts and policy analysis.

Policy context and recommendations

• Adopting Inflation Targeting and increasing monetary policy effectiveness would require broad-based reforms as compressively outlined in the developed Road Map for Transitioning to Inflation Targeting.
• Emphasis placed on:
  • Strengthening the QPM team’s capacity to support monetary policy meetings and internal communication.
  • Enhancing understanding of monetary policy transmission channels and the role of QPM in policy decision making.

Key subjects and keywords

• Subjects:
  • Communications in revenue administration
  • Fiscal policy
  • Inflation targeting
  • Labor
  • Monetary policy
  • Monetary policy frameworks
  • Revenue administration
• Keywords:
  • Communications in revenue administration, CR, forecast scenario, FPAS, Inflation targeting, ISCR, monetary policy, Monetary policy frameworks, monetary policy meeting, monetary policy transmission channels, QPM, QPM team, TA mission, team

Content in this bundle

• 1blrea2020002 - Preface
  • 1blrea2020002 - Preface (Markdown version)
  • 1blrea2020002 - Preface (PDF)