Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 8, 2023
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- Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 8, 2023
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400243578.002
Key findings
- Libya’s institutional framework has helped the country through a period of significant macroeconomic volatility and turmoil.
- There have been exceptional swings in oil production and revenues since 2011.
- The economy contracted sharply in 2020 due to an oil blockade and a decline in oil prices, resulting in ballooning external and fiscal deficits, and declining foreign exchange reserves.
- Libya’s economic fortunes will hinge on oil and gas production for the near future.
Projections and outlook
- Hydrocarbon production is projected to grow by around 15 percent in 2023.
- Oil production increased from 1 million barrels per day in 2022 to around 1.2 million barrels per day in 2023.
- Looking ahead, assuming fiscal spending remains contained, the baseline projection is for fiscal and external surpluses to gradually decline over coming years.
Risks to the outlook
- Lower oil prices due to lower-than-expected global growth.
- Renewed conflict and/or social unrest that leads to disruptions in oil production.
Policy implications and emphasis
- Containment of fiscal spending is a key assumption underpinning the baseline projection for gradually declining fiscal and external surpluses.
- Continued focus on stabilizing institutions and managing hydrocarbon revenue volatility is implied by the analysis.
International Monetary Fund. "Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya", June 8, 2023.
Content in this bundle
- 4. External Sector