Qatar: Selected Issues
IMF Staff Country Reports, February 24, 2025
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- Qatar: Selected Issues
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Bibliographic details
- Published: February 24, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229001762.002
Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework
- The paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Qatar and applies the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) framework to assess impacts on Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth.
- Key finding: The FCI is an important leading indicator of Qatar’s non-hydrocarbon growth, demonstrating predictive potential for future economic performance.
- GaR framework result: Overall, the current downside risks to Qatar’s baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections are relatively mild.
Domestic and external drivers of non-hydrocarbon growth
- Domestic conditions:
- Offer the strongest signal for non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth performance in the short term.
- External conditions:
- Have significant effects on non-hydrocarbon real GDP growth in both the short and medium term.
- Primary external influence: Non-hydrocarbon growth is primarily influenced by oil prices.
- Global financial market uncertainty: Has minimal effects on non-hydrocarbon growth according to the analysis.
Scenario analysis and policy implications
- Alternative scenario tests:
- Indicate that future non-hydrocarbon growth could improve following a reduction in the policy deposit rate.
- Policy implication:
- Monetary easing via a lower policy deposit rate may support higher non-hydrocarbon growth outcomes.
- Risk assessment:
- The GaR analysis underscores the relative mildness of current downside risks to baseline non-hydrocarbon growth projections.
Content in this bundle
- Qatar: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 25/48; January 8, 2025