Sweden: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden
IMF Staff Country Reports, April 1, 2025
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- Sweden: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden
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Bibliographic details
- Published: April 1, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229007566.002
Key findings and assessment
- Inflation has been successfully brought under control; inflation is expected to remain anchored around the target.
- Sweden’s economy is described as robust and resilient and well positioned to face a more challenging environment.
- High uncertainty and a more challenging external backdrop are poised to test Sweden’s export-oriented economy.
- Slowing productivity growth and an aging population weigh on long-term growth.
- Macroprudential policy settings are appropriate and should be kept until systemic risks meaningfully subside.
Monetary policy
- The current neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate given double-sided risks to inflation.
- Downside risks to inflation from a weaker recovery are offset by upside risks from global shocks.
Fiscal policy and stabilization
- A moderately expansionary fiscal stance is appropriate.
- If downside risks materialize:
- Automatic stabilizers should be allowed to fully operate.
- There is scope for targeted support.
Financial sector and macroprudential recommendations
- Macroprudential policy settings should be maintained until systemic risks meaningfully subside.
- Financial sector policy and financial sector stability remain central considerations given Sweden’s export orientation and external risks.
Productivity and structural policies
- Reviving higher productivity growth will require actions on multiple fronts.
- Emphasis on policies to boost productivity is appropriate given the drag from slowing productivity growth and an aging population.
Risks and scenarios
- Principal downside risk: a weaker global recovery that could drag on Sweden’s export-oriented economy and inflation.
- Principal upside risk: global shocks that could push inflation above target.
- Policy stance emphasizes flexibility: neutral monetary policy with a moderately expansionary fiscal stance and preserved macroprudential buffers.
Source: Sweden: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Sweden (IMF).
Content in this bundle
- 1sweea2025001-print-pdf