Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 4, 2025
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 4, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229013093.002
Analytical approach
- Methods used:
- Production function analysis
- State-space models
- Univariate filters
- Scope:
- Reassessment of potential output in light of recent structural changes and external shocks, including the pandemic and the regional conflict.
Key findings
- Potential output growth is estimated at 5.3 percent.
- Main drivers of the rise in potential output growth:
- Capital accumulation
- Labor force expansion
- A notable driver of recent growth dynamics is the influx of Russian migrants since 2022.
- Total factor productivity (TFP) remains below historical averages.
Implications and areas highlighted by the study
- The country’s evolving productive capacity has increased, driven primarily by capital and labor inputs rather than TFP gains.
- Continued monitoring of labor flows (including migration) and capital formation is important for understanding near-term and medium-term potential output dynamics.
- The persistence of below-average TFP suggests scope for policies that enhance productivity growth (no specific policy prescriptions are detailed in the source text).
Subjects and thematic tags included in the report
- Fiscal risks
- Labor; Labor market policy; Labor markets
- Potential output; Production
- Public financial management (PFM)
- Keywords noted: Central Asia, Central Asia and the Caucasus, Europe, Fiscal risks, Global, IMF SOE health check tool, Kyrgyzstan soes health check, labor market analysis, Labor market policy, Labor markets, Middle East, North Africa, output gap dynamics, Potential output, TFP series, unit Labor
Source: Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues (IMF Staff Country Reports 2025/119).
Content in this bundle
- Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report No. 25/119; May 7, 2025