Libya: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, June 25, 2025
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- Libya: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
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Bibliographic details
- Published: June 25, 2025
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229015516.002
Overview and Context
- Continued political division and widespread fragilities have hindered the authorities’ capacity to control public expenditure and enact necessary reforms.
- Forging a comprehensive reform program aimed at reducing dependence on oil revenues is identified as a top priority for the authorities.
- Structural and governance reforms are recommended to foster the emergence of a diversified, sustainable, and private sector-led economy.
Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
- Real gross domestic product growth is estimated to have declined to around 2 percent in 2024 from 10 percent in 2023, driven by a contraction in the hydrocarbon sector.
- The outlook is dominated by developments in the oil sector, and the country remains exposed to global downside risks.
- The current account is slated to post a small surplus in 2025 before turning into a small deficit over the medium term, as oil prices remain subdued.
Fiscal and External Positions
- The fiscal balance is projected to remain in deficit under the weight of continued large government spending.
- Controlling expenditure is emphasized as key to ensure sustainability and to achieving intergenerational equity.
Key Findings and Projections
- Real GDP growth: 10 percent (2023); around 2 percent (2024).
- Current account: small surplus in 2025; small deficit over the medium term as oil prices remain subdued.
- Fiscal balance: projected to remain in deficit due to large government spending.
Policy Recommendations
- Control public expenditure to restore fiscal sustainability and support intergenerational equity.
- Implement structural and governance reforms to reduce dependence on oil revenues and encourage private sector-led diversification.
- Prioritize a comprehensive reform program aimed at reducing the economy’s dependence on oil revenues.
Subject Tags and Keywords (as provided)
- Subjects: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), Crime, Expenditure, Oil prices, Oil production, Prices, Production
- Keywords: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT), authority capacity development, clearance certificate, Global, METAC mission, METAC study tour, METAC TA, Oil prices, Oil production, transparency policy
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