Chile: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
IMF Staff Country Reports, July 8, 2026
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- Chile: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
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Bibliographic details
- Published: July 8, 2026
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229051903.002
Key findings
- Chile’s economy remains resilient, supported by higher copper prices.
- The rise in oil prices has pushed inflation temporarily above target.
- Fiscal buffers have shrunk and structural challenges persist.
- Growth is projected to moderate to 1.8 percent in 2026.
- Risks are to the downside in the near term and broadly balanced over the medium term.
Macroeconomic outlook and risks
- Projection: growth of 1.8 percent in 2026.
- Near-term headwinds:
- Higher oil prices (pushing inflation temporarily above target).
- Tighter financial conditions following the war in the Middle East.
- Offsetting factor: elevated copper prices providing support to the outlook.
- Risk assessment:
- Downside risks dominant in the near term.
- Broadly balanced risks over the medium term.
Fiscal outlook and recommendations
- The new administration aims to consolidate the fiscal position via expenditure cuts.
- The objective of steadily reducing the structural fiscal deficit to 1.5 percent of GDP by 2030 is welcomed.
- IMF assessment: additional measures will be needed if announced spending cuts are not feasible or if downside risks materialize.
- Fiscal concern: fiscal buffers have shrunk, increasing vulnerability to shocks.
Structural reforms and policy recommendations to boost growth
- Raise potential growth through:
- Deregulation.
- Tax reforms.
- Broad-based measures deemed critical:
- Rationalizing regulations.
- Complementary policies to facilitate trade and logistics.
- Measures to narrow skill gaps.
- Policies to raise female labor supply.
- Goal: enhance productivity and investment.
Chile: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile, July 8, 2026.
Content in this bundle
- 1. Alternative Growth Scenarios