Mongolia: 2026 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
IMF Staff Country Reports, August 6, 2026
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- Canonical URL
- Mongolia: 2026 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
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Bibliographic details
- Published: August 6, 2026
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229057592.002
Key findings
- Mongolia has benefited from a multi-year mining boom, strong growth, and decreasing external and fiscal vulnerabilities.
- The economy remains exposed to commodity price shocks.
- Lower coal prices since early 2025 have already led to revenue shortfalls.
- Political pressures to raise expenditure are intense.
- The fiscal position is projected to deteriorate, given large public wage and pension increases, and non-mining tax cuts, reversing recent gains in reducing vulnerabilities.
- Political uncertainty and risks of policy slippages will likely increase ahead of the 2027–28 presidential and parliamentary elections.
Risks and outlook
- Commodity price volatility (notably coal) has produced immediate revenue shortfalls as of early 2025.
- Fiscal deterioration is projected due to:
- large public wage increases;
- large pension increases;
- non-mining tax cuts.
- Political uncertainty ahead of the 2027–28 presidential and parliamentary elections raises the likelihood of policy slippages.