Italy: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Climate Physical Risk Analysis
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 3, 2026
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 3, 2026
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229060547.002
Overview
- Italy is highly exposed to climate‑related physical risks, particularly floods.
- This exposure reflects its geographic location, hydro‑morphological characteristics, and high concentration of economic activity and population in flood‑prone areas.
- Floods are among the most frequent and damaging natural hazards affecting the country.
- Climate change is increasing the frequency of intense precipitation events, and consequently the occurrence and intensity of floods.
- Italy has one of the largest natural catastrophe (NatCat) insurance protection gaps in Europe, leaving households, firms, and public finances exposed to uninsured losses and increasing reliance on post‑disaster government support.
Key findings
- High exposure to flood risk due to geographic and hydro‑morphological factors.
- Concentration of economic activity and population in flood‑prone areas amplifies potential damages.
- Climate change is driving increases in the frequency of intense precipitation events and flood occurrence/intensity.
- Large NatCat insurance protection gap in Europe for Italy, contributing to:
- Household exposure to uninsured losses.
- Firm exposure to uninsured losses.
- Increased reliance on post‑disaster government support, stressing public finances.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Strengthen risk mitigation and adaptation measures targeting flood‑prone areas.
- Improve financial protection against NatCat events to reduce the insurance protection gap for households and firms.
- Reduce public finance contingent liabilities by enhancing insurance coverage and risk‑sharing mechanisms to limit post‑disaster government support needs.
- Incorporate climate physical risk considerations into macrofinancial and supervisory assessments to address credit and capital vulnerabilities stemming from climate shocks.