Brunei Darussalam: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brunei Darussalam
IMF Staff Country Reports, September 25, 2026
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- Brunei Darussalam: 2026 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Brunei Darussalam
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Bibliographic details
- Published: September 25, 2026
- Series: IMF Staff Country Reports
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229058414.002
Key findings
- The benefit to Brunei’s hydrocarbon-dependent economy from elevated global energy and petrochemical prices is expected to be tempered by limited adjustment of production volumes.
- Fiscal and external balances are projected to strengthen.
- The fiscal deficit is expected to remain large, highlighting structural imbalances.
- Energy prices remain the key two-sided risk.
- Technical issues in the hydrocarbon sector pose material downside risks.
- Geopolitical tensions create downside risks for external growth and financial stability.
Risks and vulnerabilities
- Energy-price volatility is the principal two-sided risk to the outlook.
- Technical disruptions in the hydrocarbon sector could materially weaken near-term performance.
- Geopolitical tensions may negatively affect external growth and financial stability.
Fiscal and external outlook
- Projected strengthening of fiscal balances despite persistent large fiscal deficit.
- Projected strengthening of external balances, reflecting the impact of elevated energy and petrochemical prices tempered by limited production adjustments.
Structural challenges and implications
- Large remaining fiscal deficit underscores underlying structural imbalances in the economy.
- Hydrocarbon dependence leaves the economy exposed to commodity price swings and sector-specific technical risks.
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- 1brnea2026001