COVID-19 and Trust Among the Young

Source details

Main thesis: Exposure to epidemics during the “impressionable years” (age 18 to 25) durably reduces trust in political institutions and scientists, with implications for public-health compliance and broader societal resilience.
Data sources and scope:
- Gallup World Polls fielded in 140 countries annually between 2006 and 2018.
- EM-DAT International Disaster Database tabulation of epidemics since 1970.
- 2018 Wellcome Trust survey of some 75,000 individuals in 138 countries.
- Note: the Gallup-based sample period ends in 2018 (predates COVID-19); complementary evidence from 2020 is referenced.

Conceptual basis:
- Literature shows political and behavioral attitudes formed at ages 18 to 25 tend to persist (references include Krosnick and Alwin, Newcomb, Giuliano and Spilimbergo).
- Rationales include: Mannheim’s “fresh encounter,” Erikson’s identity formation, increased cognitive capacity in late adolescence, and neurological development during the transition to adulthood.
Implication: experiences during these years have outsized, long-lived effects on trust and attitudes.

Identification strategy: compare cohorts exposed to an epidemic during their impressionable years with other cohorts in the same country-year, controlling for social, economic, and personal variables.
Key quantitative results:
- Someone highly exposed to an epidemic throughout his or her impressionable years, compared with someone with no such exposure, is:
- 5.1 percentage points less likely to have confidence in the government.
- 7.2 percentage points less likely to have confidence in the honesty of elections.
- 6.2 percentage points less likely to approve of the performance of the national leader.
- Mean outcomes for these variables are:
- 50 percent (confidence in government).
- 51 percent (confidence in honesty of elections).
- 51 percent (approval of national leader).
Persistence and heterogeneity:
- Effects decay only gradually; on average, they persist for nearly two decades.
- No analogous effect for individuals too young or older than the impressionable years when the epidemic occurs.
- Effects are twice as large when the epidemic is experienced under a weak government (limited legislative strength, unity, and popular support).
- The strongest impact on trust in government for young adults is driven by persons living in democracies.

Institutional specificity:
- Negative effects are specific to political institutions and leaders; no analogous impact on police, military, banks, and financial institutions.
- Exception: pronounced negative effect on trust in the country’s health care system following impressionable-year epidemic exposure.
Government capacity and timing:
- Weaker governments took longer to respond to COVID-19 with their first non-pharmaceutical intervention (evidence from 2020).
- Poor policy responses to public-health emergencies make governments more vulnerable to erosion of trust among the young.

Main findings:
- Impressionable-year epidemic exposure reduces trust in scientists and in the benefits of their work.
- Individuals with the highest exposure to epidemics during their impressionable years are on average 11 percentage points less likely to trust scientists than those not so exposed.
- No change in trust for cohorts younger or older than 18 to 25 at the time of exposure.
Role of science education:
- The decline in trust is driven by individuals whose science education ended at primary school versus those who continued through at least secondary school.
Behavioral consequences:
- Impressionable-year epidemic exposure reduces the likelihood that people will have their children vaccinated against childhood diseases.
Nuance:
- Despite declines in trust in scientists’ honesty, accuracy, and public benefits, views of science as an endeavor (trust in science as an enterprise and belief that science and technology will help improve life) are unchanged.

Risks:
- A vicious spiral: epidemics reduce trust, which undermines compliance and makes containment of current and future epidemics harder.
- Wider consequences: diminished trust among the young can weaken societal responses to other emergencies and create headwinds for long-term economic development.
Recommendations:
- Strengthen public-health preparedness and response capacity in advance to reduce the likelihood of disappointing constituents during epidemics.
- Build government capacity and unity so responses can be timely and credible; weak and unstable governments see larger trust losses.
- Tailor communication strategies to the concerns of young adults in their impressionable years to rebuild and preserve trust.
- Scientists should improve communication about the scientific process, including:
- Explaining that disagreements and evolving findings are normal parts of scientific progress.
- Addressing concerns about corporate agendas and personal bias explicitly.
- Expand science education (through at least secondary schooling) to mitigate declines in trust in scientists following epidemic exposure.

Trust matters for acceptance of public-health advice and for broader societal resilience.
Investments in preparedness, competent policy response, consistent messaging, and science education can reduce the political and social “scar” epidemics inflict on the young and on future policymaking.

F&D Magazine, June 2022 — CEVAT AKSOY, BARRY EICHENGREEN, ORKUN SAKA