Refugees can be assets rather than burdens to their new countries

Source details

Canonical URL: Refugees can be assets rather than burdens to their new countries

Giovanni Peri argues that Ukrainian migrants can potentially be assets, not burdens, to their new home bases if integrated properly.
The interview is conducted by F&D’s Bruce Edwards and published in F&D Magazine, June 2022.

More than 4.5 million people have fled the war in Ukraine.
Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary—the closest countries—are receiving at least 3 million of the 4.5 million and they could be strained.
There is a potentially significant short-term cost for host countries.

Short-term emergency needs: accommodations, basic needs, and health services due to trauma and uncertainty.
Fiscal estimate for the European Union: refugees may have a cost of $8,000 to $10,000 per person in the first year in terms of housing and support.
Medium-term potential: in the second, third, fourth years—especially if refugees access the labor market and receive language/job support—they become productive assets; the income they generate is much larger than the cost.

Prewar Ukrainian migration: in Poland more than 1 million Ukrainians; numbers in Germany, Italy, France were in the hundreds of thousands; diaspora of Ukrainians in Canada and in the US, over 1 million.
In some sending countries (Italy, France, partly Germany) migration of women sometimes 70 percent, concentrated in hospitality, assistance for the elderly and disabled, and personal services.
Immigrants tend to do somewhat different types of jobs than natives, reducing direct competition and allowing companies to hire and grow.
Policy example: Denmark’s service matching refugees with sectors experiencing hiring shortages increases the probability of employment and minimizes competition.

Investing in refugees early (job search assistance, language training, matching services) converts short-term costs into returns for the receiving economy.
Without investment, risks include long-run costs: marginal employment, lower employability, higher probability of marginalization, crime, addiction, and adverse outcomes for children.

Scenario 1: War ends, Ukraine maintains independence and economic activity that encourage return; time abroad can yield trade, investment, higher skills, and entrepreneurship benefiting local economy.
Scenario 2: War lasts a long time, many migrants do not return; split families reunify abroad, leading to larger population drain and brain drain as professionals continue to leave.

Russia experienced prior brain drain after the collapse of the Soviet Union and following the early 2010s political shifts.
Reports indicate hundreds of thousands of Russians want to leave; those most likely to leave include engineers, mathematicians, scientists, and critical voices—skills crucial for economic development.
In the longer term, continued outflows could be very damaging to Russia’s economy.

Allow refugees to move freely to access jobs and education (example: EU’s coordinated response permitting movement and school access).
Implement early integration policies: job matching, language training, employment support in the first year to accelerate productivity gains.
Target matching to sectors with hiring shortages (personal assistance, hospitality, food industries) to reduce local competition and fill unmet demand.
View refugee reception as an investment in human capital rather than solely a short-term fiscal burden.

"more than 4.5 million" people fled Ukraine.
"at least 3 million of the 4.5 million" received by Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary.
EU first-year cost estimate: "$8,000 to $10,000 per person".
Prewar Ukrainian migrants in Poland: "more than 1 million".
Diaspora in Canada and the US: "over 1 million".
Female share in some country flows: "sometimes 70 percent".

Refugees can be assets rather than burdens to their new countries — F&D Magazine, June 2022.

Investing in Refugees
- Investing in Refugees (Markdown version)
- Investing in Refugees (PDF)