Energy Transitions
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: ANDREW STANLEY
- Published: December 1, 2022
Overview
- The world is in a race against time to cut its reliance on fossil fuels and have a fighting chance of limiting a temperature rise to 1.5°C.
- The recent acceleration of wind and solar has helped low-carbon energy reach 17 percent of total primary energy needs.
- Despite gains, fossil fuels still make up 77 percent of total primary energy, "just as they did 20 years ago."
- Achieving net zero emissions by 2050 requires both rapidly increasing low-carbon energy and decreasing fossil fuel use simultaneously.
Current trends and constraints
- Low-carbon share: 17 percent of total primary energy needs.
- Fossil-fuel share: 77 percent of total primary energy needs.
- Historical comparison: fossil-fuel share remains unchanged "just as they did 20 years ago."
- Differential demand dynamics:
- Per capita energy consumption has peaked in many advanced economies.
- Per capita energy consumption is growing in developing economies.
- Energy consumption must increase in low-income countries to lift people out of poverty and raise living standards.
- Most population growth is occurring in low-income and developing countries.
Technology and policy implications
- Transition scope:
- "We need much more than just wind and solar"—additional technologies and approaches are essential.
- Candidate technologies and approaches highlighted:
- Other renewables, including bioenergy.
- Green hydrogen.
- Carbon capture and storage.
- Greater energy efficiency—"doing more with less" as emphasized by IEA’s Fatih Birol.
- Policy challenge:
- The energy transition required today is unlike past transitions because it must combine rapid scaling of low-carbon supply with an absolute reduction in fossil-fuel use, not merely add energy to growing consumption.
Key takeaways
- Limiting warming to 1.5°C is time-sensitive and requires far more than current wind and solar deployment.
- Meeting development and poverty-reduction needs in low-income countries implies rising energy demand even as global fossil-fuel use must fall.
- A broad portfolio of technological options—renewables beyond wind and solar, green hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and major gains in energy efficiency—will be required to reconcile rising energy needs in some regions with the global net zero by 2050 goal.
F&D Magazine — ANDREW STANLEY, December 2022
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