Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from a Scenario Planning Exercise
IMF Notes, April 3, 2026
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- Global Economic and Financial Implications of Artificial Intelligence: Lessons from a Scenario Planning Exercise
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Karim Barhoumi, Fabia A. de Carvalho, Michael Gorbanyov, Yosuke Kido, David Koll, Dragana Ostojic, Baoping Shang, Natalia T. Tamirisa, Sally Toms, Era Dabla-Norris, Anh D. M. Nguyen, Yunhui Zhao
- Published: April 3, 2026
- Series: IMF Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229042482.068
Overview
- Synthesizes insights from a high-level workshop and scenario-planning exercise on the global economic and financial implications of artificial intelligence (AI) hosted by the IMF in December 2025.
- Characterizes AI as a macro-critical transition rather than a standard technology shock.
- Emphasizes that the macroeconomic path will be shaped less by frontier capability alone than by:
- the speed and breadth of diffusion, and
- the readiness of institutions and infrastructure to absorb the technology.
- Stresses that understanding AI’s potential and implications is crucial for the Fund’s ability to support its member countries with high-quality policy advice.
Key findings from the workshop and scenario-planning exercise
- AI is advancing rapidly and has the potential to restructure the global economy.
- The trajectory and macroeconomic outcomes depend on diffusion and institutional readiness rather than solely on frontier AI capabilities.
- Treating AI as a macro-critical transition implies different analytical and policy priorities compared with treating it as a conventional technology shock.
Policy implications and recommendations for the IMF and member countries
- Prioritize analysis and surveillance that account for AI as a broad macro-critical transition.
- Focus IMF support on enhancing member countries’ capacity to absorb AI through institutions and infrastructure readiness.
- Tailor policy advice to consider diffusion patterns and institutional constraints that shape macroeconomic outcomes.
Subject areas and keywords emphasized
- Subject: Artificial intelligence (economics), Automation, Debt sustainability analysis, Econometric analysis, Economic classification, External debt, Labor, Labor markets, Production, Productivity, Public financial management (PFM), Technology
- Keywords: AI diffusion, Artificial intelligence, Artificial intelligence (economics), Automation, Debt sustainability analysis, Economic classification, Financial stability, Global, IMF Library, IMF note, Labor markets, Macroeconomic policy frameworks, Productivity, Scenario planning, scenario-planning exercise, Transformative AI, workshop participant
Content in this bundle
- Executive Summary