Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges

Policy Papers, October 6, 2015

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The Arab Countries in Transition (ACTs) have had diverging trajectories over the past year and face an uncertain outlook.
Improvements in the European economy, lower oil prices, and some progress on the policy front have provided tailwinds to growth.
Growth is expected to pick up significantly in Egypt and Morocco.
Unemployment remains high across the ACTs.

Several ACTs have suffered from intensifying and spreading conflicts that cause widespread human suffering and sizeable economic challenges.
Libya and Yemen are directly affected by conflict.
Spillovers from conflicts and the civil wars in Iraq and Syria weigh on Jordan and Tunisia, as well as other countries in the region (e.g., Lebanon, Djibouti), Turkey and Europe.
These spillovers come most prominently in the form of:
- large refugee flows
- deteriorating security
- pressures on economic infrastructures and labor markets

The combination of economic headwinds and conflict-related spillovers adds urgency to the need to:
- strengthen economic resilience in the Arab countries
- address long-standing sources of inequity and exclusion
Coordinated and scaled-up support from the international community will be critical to:
- stabilizing conditions in the region
- addressing the refugee crisis
- securing a more promising economic future for the ACTs in this challenging environment

Publication date: October 6, 2015
Subjects: Cross country analysis, Economic conditions, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Oil prices, Regional Economic Outlook, Transition economies, Tunisia, Unemployment, Yemen

Source: Arab Countries in Transition - Economic Outlook and Key Challenges (October 6, 2015).