Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update: October 2013
Asia and Pacific, October 11, 2013
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Bibliographic details
- Published: October 11, 2013
- Series: Asia and Pacific
Overview
- Asia has not been spared by the recent re-pricing of financial assets in emerging markets, encountering a wave of capital outflows in the past few months.
- The overall impact has, so far, been manageable although some countries have been subject to greater stress.
- Tighter global liquidity–– and homegrown structural impediments in some countries––will weigh on growth, but for most economies the impact should be partly offset by a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies and resilient domestic demand.
Economic impact and differentiation across the region
- For most economies:
- Impact partly offset by a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies.
- Resilient domestic demand provides additional support.
- For countries with greater stress:
- Those that have delayed reforms, left fiscal vulnerabilities untackled, or tolerated too-high inflation may be forced to respond with a procyclical policy tightening.
- If conditions tighten further:
- Greater differentiation across the region is likely.
- Countries with strong fundamentals and policy credibility will be able to offset imported tightening through lower policy rates and fiscal support.
Policy implications and recommendations
- Countries with strong fundamentals and credibility:
- Can use lower policy rates and fiscal support to offset external tightening.
- Countries with vulnerabilities should:
- Announce credible medium-term reforms to rebuild confidence and ease policy trade-offs.
- Address fiscal vulnerabilities and inflation that may force procyclical tightening if left unchecked.
Key statements and timing
- Publication identification: Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update: October 2013.
- Timing reference in text: "past few months".
- Emphasis on policy credibility and structural reform as central to managing external shocks.
Source: Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook Update: October 2013
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